Worst Winter in a While Moves Forward

Discussion: Meteorological winter ends after today. Meteorological spring begins tomorrow as each new day features increased sunlight duration and sun angle. Heck, we change the clocks soon at which point we’ll have horizon dayglow to 7pm+. General climatology will make it harder for snow to fall and accumulate each day we step through March. Longwave radiation will even inhibit snow accumulation during overnight hours once we’re beyond the ides/equinox period. We all know snow is still possible based on historical observations, even into early April. But once we leave February it becomes a more of a low possibility than a probability. We still have 20 days of astronomical/calendar winter left which tends to align more with coastal areas due to colder ocean temperatures, but time is running out.

It’s been a winter of promising snowstorms in the long range (6-10 days out) fizzling out to mostly rain events in the mid-to-short range. Lots of thread the needles low possibilities within unfavorable snowstorm patterns. Raging pacific jet streams, weakening La Nina, blocking without a W US ridge, stubborn +EPO/-PNA, stubborn SE Atlantic Ridges, prolonged warmth, transient cold…anything but a solid Miller-A track in a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO setup. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event? More like sudden stratospheric sharting event. The super cold air from such propagated elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, not where it needed to go for us to benefit wintry.

There was some promise in early December and around Christmas time. Instead, we got coal. Then the warm period from New Years through 2/3 of January. A few transient wow it’s cold, cold shots, but otherwise more of the same through February. Now we are entering March and the teleconnections are trying to sing a song called Back-Loaded Winter, I’m sure you’ve heard it.

This Friday into Saturday first showed up last week as an I-95 KABOOM. Between then and today, the system has slowly trended northward with each model suite/run. Currently, the data suggests a NWNJ/NNJ graze with even less wintry potential than last night’s system meaning rain and manageable winds again S of I-195 (probably S of I-78 maybe even S of I-80). More of the same…a bigger long-range signal that never made it to the forecasting period. We shouldn’t be surprised though with a Phase 7 MJO and current -PNA/+AO. Sometimes hope can get out ahead of science in the long-range for these thread the needle jobs. Regardless, the forecast for this Friday-Saturday will likely not be for an I-95 dumping but rather a NNJ wintry mix with rain likely for SNJ and most of CNJ.

Beyond tomorrow does look interesting to me, not as a long shot thread the needle system in a crappy pattern, but as a more favorable pattern for snowstorm development. The MJO looks to go into phase 8 (favorable for EC snow with a dying La Nina). AO and NAO are both expected to go negative with a rising PNA expected to go neutral positive by the 10^th. IMO this makes the middle 2-3 weeks of March worth watching for possible snowstorm development. Much more interesting than the unfavorable patterns that have dominated Christmas through this weekend. There are no specific-focused threats I’m watching in that period, just a window opening to a favorable snowstorm pattern with the repeated strong caveat of sun-angle and climatology challenges. I’ll watch this period and report accordingly. Otherwise and afterwards, it will be time for spring-focused activities.

In English: This Friday-Saturday will likely bring wintry impacts to NWNJ/NNJ only meaning rain and manageable winds for the rest of NJ. I’ll get into more impact detail tomorrow. It’s now time for the 8^th and 9^th inning of winter. We’re down a bunch of runs but have the top of the lineup coming up. We could very well strike out 6 times in a row and move on into spring. Or we could see a deep homer or two like in March 2014 and 2018. Either way, the game is not over…as much as some bitter snow lovers want it to be over. Have a great rest of your Tuesday and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC