The Arctic front is moving in. Do you know where your mittens are?
Disco: We’re now sandwiched between low pressure in SE Canada and the high pressure that dropped out of Canada into the Northwest/North-central US. This will set up a strong NW flow of Arctic-injected air. The Great Lakes beneath this flow are still somewhat warm. This could destabilize enough to feed snow squalls/flurries to the coast. The cold front is currently pushing through EPA and will soon be into the NWNJ elevations. The front should be through all of New Jersey by the early AM hours of tomorrow. With this front temperatures will obviously drop but wind chills will be the bigger story. Gustier winds should only be for the initial onset of the air mass (tonight through tomorrow). NW winds should then subside for Saturday and Sunday as the lower 500mb heights pivot and eventually rock through by Sunday afternoon.
500mb dynamics are somewhat weak but we could see some precipitation on Sunday as a low cuts through over a weak ridge. This should give us a few-day break before the cold returns even harder next week. Several snow chances exist starting this Sunday and through next week but those to the S and SE of the I-95 corridor might deal with mixed-precipitation and/or just more cold rain. Hang in there, your peak snowy season isn’t until February when the ocean surface temperatures are colder. We could however possibly see the snow-rain line come down to the I-95 corridor for a few of these systems…possibly even a little further SE. We’ll see. I’ll be watching closely and will update accordingly.
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Friday (Dec 9) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s. SNJ has the best chance to just break 40. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds for most of the day but isolated lake-effect flurries are possible, especially for points NW. Winds should be gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall below freezing statewide and possibly into the teens for NNJ elevations.
Saturday (Dec 10) high temperatures should likely be held in the 30s again for most. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW (as they subside from stronger Friday winds). Overnight lows should fall into the teens for NNJ elevations and 20s for the rest of New Jersey.
Sunday (Dec 11) high temperatures should struggle to rise above freezing for NNJ elevations. The rest of the state should likely reach the upper-30s/lower-40s. That should set up the trend for the snow/rain line for any precipitation that wants to fall. That line would, in theory, push S and SE as the sun sets but we do have milder air moving in. Timing will be crucial and well-expressed in the coming days. With that said, NWNJ is favored for snow, SENJ is favored for cold rain. Everyone between needs to play the radar as they represent the current spread of uncertainty regarding snow vs rain.
An early look at next week indicates a milder start but that should be short-lived as another Arctic air mass comes through. More wintry precipitation chances exist on the front and back of that air mass but the NWNJ/SENJ I-95 divide of snow/rain should continue. Stay warm, be safe and have a great weekend! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™