Wintry Air Mass Detected

Discussion: The upper-jet is expected to dip to the S of NJ once the Tuesday system is through. There it will stay until well into December. Height, analyzed at 500mb, suggests a period of troughing beginning this weekend that should also last well into December. Teleconnections are indicating a -NAO/-AO/+PNA/-EPO pattern which means favorable pattern conditions for snow development (Eastern Pacific trough, W US ridge, available cold air, and high-latitude Atlantic blocking. The above image shows heights for Monday Dec 2 and represents the magnitude of cold that will settle in behind the Thanksgiving system into December. This Thanksgiving system likely won’t work out for NJ snow but once we get into the airmass behind the Thanksgiving system, it’s going to feel pretty darn wintry. Yet still, a colder pattern with favorable tellies does not guarantee a snow storm. It just means that if one forms, it will likely have greater impact than a crap snow pattern would. Let’s talk more about the closer range.

A low will track across the Great Lakes into SE Canada between now and Wednesday. We’re currently in the warm sector of that system which is why today feels rather nice. Some areas are nearing 60.  Rain is then expected to approach later tonight and move into NJ by Tuesday AM. Rain should end by Tuesday sundown, likely bringing an additional quarter to third-inch of rainfall across the state. The Canadian low will then bring a cold front through behind the rain and set up a colder but dry Wednesday. The N/NW flow behind the low is important because that will position the boundary that the next Thanksgiving system will ride. For a colder Thanksgiving scenario, you would want the boundary pushed further S. For a warmer Thanksgiving scenario, you would want the boundary not pushed as far S. In either case, the next low will approach and track through the Mid-Atlantic between late Wednesday night and Friday morning.

We are once again dealing with a marginal surface temperature situation for the Thanksgiving system. Even if the precipitation starts as or stays as snow for parts of NNJ elevations, it should struggle to stick on the ~35F surface that is being modeled. This is not like the other day where the upper low brought additional cold air down to the surface. With that said, I think parts of NWNJ see snowfall Thanksgiving morning however with pasty stickage at most and mostly on natural surfaces only if snowfall rates are higher. The rest of NJ can expect a cold rain between late Wednesday night and early Friday morning. Unfortunately, for travel interests, Thanksgiving day will be wet and breezy. Only NWNJ has the chance to see wintry impacts and that might only be snow that is falling and not sticking in extreme NWNJ. I will closely monitor any last-minute changes on temp profile and precipitation type. Once both systems are through (by Friday morning), NJ should see another .75 to 1.25 inches of much needed rainfall.

In English: Today (Monday) is nice and mild. Tuesday looks rainy. Wednesday looks dry and colder. Between Wednesday night and Friday morning, most of New Jersey should see a steady rain with breeze at times. Extreme NWNJ could see some snow mix in or possibly change to all snow but with little-to-no accumulation due to an above-freezing surface. The rest of Thanksgiving weekend looks cold and clear. The first 10 days of December have a wintry look them…cold air mass in place with a few shots for some early season snow.

Forecast

Monday (Nov 25) high temperatures are maxing in the mid-50s for most NJ locations. Skies should remain mostly clear with a few clouds possibly working in. Winds should remain light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as light rainfall approaches the region but likely holds off until Tuesday AM.

Tuesday (Nov 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s. Skies should start mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. The rain favors Tuesday AM hours. Improvement, possibly clearing, is expected by sunset. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should dip into the 30s for most of NJ with immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas possibly hanging just above 40.

Wednesday (Nov 27) high temperatures should range from 45-50. ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas have the best chance to just break 50. A colder look and feel to the sky. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as snow/rain approach from the W. Snow would likely favor the higher NWNJ elevations.

Thursday (Nov 28) high temperatures should range from 40-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely during most daytime hours. NWNJ could be dealing with snow that struggles to accumulate but this would be N of I-80 and NW of I-287 for elevations above 1000ft. This will present additional delays on holiday travel so I recommend allowing additional time for such. Winds should be light-to-breezy…starting out from the S/SW and changing to the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most NJ areas as conditions dry out. Maybe near-40 or lower-40s for coasties.  

Friday (Nov 29) high temperatures should climb to just the 40-45 range…likely the coldest feeling daytime of the Fall so far. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 20-30 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Coasties maybe hovering around 32 by daybreak Saturday morning.

An early look at the weekend (Nov 30-Dec 1) indicates a much colder look and feel persisting. We’re talking highs in the 30s/lower-40s and lows down to the 20s, maybe teens for elevations. Weekend looks dry though with a prolonged pattern of cold to last well into December with a few storm signals showing up in the first third of December. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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