Winter Tries to Flex

Discussion: As the worst winter (snow-wise) since 2011-2012 begins to sunset, it might try to remind us that we are indeed still in the season of winter. Sun angle is climbing higher each day. Climatology is now stacked against daytime snow accumulation (unless snow rates are puking). You have other factors such as long-wave radiation bouncing that will be starting to even prevent stickage at night. This is not news. It’s almost March. It can, however, still snow and stick overnight when temps drop below freezing. We’re not talking about a snowmaggedon winter ending here but we do have a few systems to discuss.

First, is tomorrow (Saturday). The zonal boundary pattern will remain in place this weekend as two W-to-E moving areas of energy (one N of the boundary and one S) fail to fully phase together but interact slightly. Today’s colder NW winds are pushing the boundary S of NJ meaning any precipitation that does fall tomorrow will likely be snow. Coastal areas will battle light SE flow off the ocean tomorrow keeping the surface above freezing. But areas away from the ocean and further N in NJ could see some light stickage. Likely trace amounts on natural/cold surfaces. No big deal.

Second, is another W-to-E moving system much more organized for Monday PM into Tuesday AM. This looks like a double barrel low capable of producing snow or ice N of I-80 and rain to the S of I-80. That expected snow/ice/rain line could jump around a little bit over the weekend but likely not S of I-78. As that system clears, the boundary will float back N over NJ and provide a nicer milder Wed-Thurs. The zonal pattern, however, looks to end for Friday as a shallow trough starts to swing through.

Third, is the March 3-4 period. The GFS has been aggressive in suggesting a fairly strong low tracking flat (from W/SW to E/NE) in front of the trough. There’s a lot of cold air available to the N of the low. So where the low tracks through will ultimately determine NJ’s potential snowy outcome. For most of NJ to get hit, we need the low to track over the NC/VA border. The GFS has been closer to this idea. The overnight Euro has just come onboard with it. We’re 8 days away from this so a lot could change. But the signal has been strongly developing for the March 2-3 period.

Again, this is March. Snow can still fall and stick overnight quite easily with surface temps below freezing. Daytime hours will likely get too warm unless you’re under heavy snowfall in the jackpot of the system…then all bets are off like in winter of 2014 and 2018.  The above signals are what I will be tracking over the next week as winter tries to flex late in the game (about mid-7^th inning).

Friday (Feb 24) high temperatures should range from lower-40s to mid-50s from N to S. Skies will remain mostly clear with NW winds, breezy sometimes gusty. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (Feb 25) high temperatures should range from near-30 to upper-30s from elevations to coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Light snow is possible between late-morning and afternoon hours. Trace/light accumulation at most and mainly away from the ocean on natural/cold surfaces. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from 20-30 from elevations to coasts.

Sunday (Feb 26) high temperatures should get back up into the lower-50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates a system moving through Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning capable of bringing at least a wintry mix to NNJ likely rain for CNJ/SNJ. I’ll be following this closely over the weekend with wintry impact maps likely to come. Wednesday and Thursday look pretty good with highs into the 40s/50s. Tentatively watching a winter storm signal for the Friday-Saturday (March 3-4) period. See above discussion for more details. Otherwise, have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC