Discussion: To be crystal clear, a large snowstorm is not showing this weekend. That idea backed off a few days ago once models caught on to the idea of the leading N stream shortwave (the system that will bring rain to most of NJ Wed PM/Thurs AM) racing off into the Atlantic Ocean before interacting with the S stream system. So what has changed?
A trailing N stream system has sped up on model guidance…not enough to wrap up with the S stream system and produce a blizzard…but enough for the two systems to interact and establish a common area of lift between them capable of producing snow showers across New Jersey. And that is what I am watching for this weekend, specifically the Friday PM/Sat AM period.
IMO, anything from just a dusting to a few inches are possible depending on if there is less or more interaction. And as always, NWNJ will be colder than SENJ but we’re going to have an incredibly cold air mass moving in for the weekend. What could kill accumulation chances for SENJ are surface temperatures dropping below freezing last. NWNJ will be first and therefore has the best chance for accumulation.
I’m not sure the general public understands how cold it will be from Saturday into Christmas Eve. I’m seeing highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits for many without factoring in any wind chill. Point being, it will be below-freezing at the surface from Saturday morning through Christmas Eve which will allow anything that falls and sticks Friday night into Saturday morning to hang around and give parts of New Jersey a weak White Christmas. The roads would be plowed and melted but natural surfaces could still be whitened some.
I will be obsessively watching for this to happen, mostly with the interest of a White Christmas for my daughter. But the data from yesterday to now has taken steps towards this idea. Here’s to the trend continuing and I will report accordingly.
In English: The current warmer conditions will go away soon but not before some more rain Wednesday night into Thursday. We then turn much colder starting Friday with snow showers possible Friday night into Saturday morning. Anything from a dusting to a few inches would be possible but with NWNJ favored over SENJ. It will then be cold enough from Saturday into Christmas Eve for anything that sticks to hang around for a weak White Christmas. I’d say there’s a 50% chance of this happening this Friday night/Saturday morning which is up from 20% yesterday. After Christmas, we’re still expected to warm up into the New Year before cold returns with authority just after New Year’s Day. More to come. Be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC