Wetter Pattern Sustains

Discussion: The only upper-level feature that’s noteworthy is a steep and narrow trough with decent jet streaks to occur next Wednesday into next weekend. This should ultimately break the wet pattern that we’re in as a surface cold front clears everything out into the ocean starting next ~Wednesday. But from now until then, we’re basically in a wet and humid pattern. Today (Friday) and Monday look like the wettest and stormiest days of the stretch. Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are still subject to showers and thunderstorms but more of a “sunny humid day with isolated pop-ups” likely. Today (Friday) should produce periods of downpour and thunderstorms arriving from the S. We’re in a S flow humid (tropical) air mass right now. Thank goodness we’re not in the 90s or it would feel oppressive. But many spots will still reach the 80s and it will feel swampy with the elevated dew points I’m seeing. Monday looks more like a Monday PM into Tuesday AM situation for the strongest thunderstorms and heaviest downpours. Once the narrow/steep trough moves out by mid-next week, we should see a drier and hotter stretch into next weekend.

Friday (June 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Expect a very damp and humid feel. Skies should be mainly cloudy with periods of downpour and thunderstorms likely. Thunderstorms should be mostly non-severe on a widespread basis but isolated severe cells are possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fail to dip below the mid-to-upper 60s. A swampy night.  

Saturday (June 24) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most areas away from the ocean…mid-to-upper 70s for coastal areas. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun but with a humid feel. However, we should see the sun poke through at times and maybe for a few hours at a time. Not a washout day but certainly the possibility for isolated-to-scattered passing showers and boomers. Rain seems spottier and lighter and nothing like prior days. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should again fail to dip below the mid-to-upper 60s.

Sunday (June 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s away from the ocean. Can’t rule out interior CNJ/SNJ flirting with 90. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Again, we’re in a wet pattern but not a washout for this day. Expect periods of sun with sustained elevated humidity but know that isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should remain out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should again stay in the 65-70 range. Coastal areas have the best chance to not dip below 70.

An early look at next week indicates the warmer and more humid conditions sticking around. Highs into the 80s away from the ocean maybe mid-to-upper 70s along the coast. Showers and thunderstorms are possible any day. Monday looks like the wettest/stormiest day especially PM hours into Tuesday AM. Aside from that there will be pockets of sunshine with a very humid feel. Summery? Yes, but a little too tropical for outdoor interests IMO. It looks like the wet pattern will relax a bit by midweek next week with a cold front. That would theoretically make Thurs and Fri cooler before heat and humidity reloads for next weekend. Let’s take another look in a few days. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™