Wet Start Expected (Oct 9-13)

Discussion: The upper levels continue to show dominant ridging over the NE US through at least next weekend. Both Nate’s remnants and another trailing disturbance will be running directly into this ridge and are therefore both expected to fizzle energy-wise. Nate’s remnants however could still pack a punch rain-wise for areas N and W of New Jersey. NJ itself will still see some much needed rainfall on Monday but not like PA and NY. The Wednesday PM-Thursday AM system likely even less. We’ll take both periods of precipitation however in this overall dry October.  Otherwise we’re warm and muggy to start the week, thanks to warm-sector positioning, and cooler heading into the weekend. Not cold though. For cold air, we need a trough to displace the stubborn ridge. The next chance for that is around ~Oct 17. Let’s see how things evolve as we approach that period.

Monday (Oct 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a humid feel. Periods of light-to-moderate rainfall are expected throughout the day. Expected precipitation ranges from up to 2 inches for NWNJ to about a half-inch for the SENJ immediate coast.  Winds should be breezy to gusty out of the S, especially for the SENJ coast. Overnight lows should range in the 60s statewide.

Tuesday (Oct 10) high temperatures should reach into the low-to-mid 80s for most. NNJ Elevations and immediate coastal regions could hang in the upper-70s. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 50s.

Wednesday (Oct 11) high temperatures should reach the upper-60s to lower-70s N to S across NJ. Skies should be partly sunny for most of the day but could increase in cloud coverage towards evening. Showers are possible just before midnight. Winds should be light-t0-breeze out of the E/NE, breezier even gusty, along the immediate coast. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

Thursday (Oct 12) high temperatures should fail to escape the 60s statewide. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E, again breezier/gustier along the immediate coast. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the 40s.

Friday (Oct 13) high temperatures should reach the upper-60s to lower-70s from N to S across NJ. Skies should be partly sunny with isolated showers possible. Otherwise the feel should be cool and comfortable. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most.

An early look at the weekend indicates highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s…NNJ elevations a few degrees cooler. Precipitation chances look spotty at best. Most of the weekend currently looks dry but let’s revisit that in a few days for the weekend outlook. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™