Wet Start Expected (Aug 7-11)

This week should start wet and stormy but conditions then improve…

Discussion: At the upper-levels we have below-average to average heights to start this week, thanks to a series of upper-level troughs swinging through the region. Heights will then build mid-week before falling again for the weekend. At the surface this means a wet, windy and possibly stormy Monday followed by pleasant conditions Tuesday through Thursday. Friday and into the weekend looks unsettled with more rain and thunderstorms possible. 

Tropics Mention: Invest 99L is steaming across the Atlantic Ocean and would likely be named Gert once sustained winds reach 39 mph around an organized low. This could happen in the next 48-72 hours. This system would then be just NE of the Caribbean Islands and have a few possible paths. It could head straight into the SE US, graze the east coast, or re-curve and miss the east coast all together. If it goes into the SE US, it could then swing around and possibly bring a rain-maker to NJ from the S/SW. If it grazes the east coast then NJ would have to prepare for impacts in the ~Aug 14-16 period. If it re-curves and misses the east coast then impact would be limited to slightly elevated tide tables and increased swell/rip currents along the immediate coast…a surfer’s paradise. The jury is out on how intense the system would be when nearing the east coast. We’ll have to see how it develops over the next few days. I’ll be monitoring this system closely each day and will report on it the best I can.

Monday (Aug 7) high temperatures should only top out in the 70s for most. NNJ elevations might even struggle to escape the 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy and humid with periods of moderate-to-heavy rain likely. My best estimate as of now is .5-1″ for NNJ, .75-1.25″ for CNJ and 1-1.5″ for SNJ when all is said and done early Tuesday morning. Embedded thunderstorms are likely but I would give SNJ an advantage over CNJ/NNJ for such. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SE and rock to the E before finishing out of the N as the system pulls away. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Tuesday (Aug 8) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s statewide. Skies should gradually improve and clear throughout the day as humidity reduces. By afternoon hours, it should feel very comfortable out. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide. I wouldn’t be surprised to see NNJ elevation and some areas of the pine barrens drop into the upper-40s. A chiropractor fantasy for all those who sleep with their windows open.

Wednesday (Aug 9) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasant. Winds should be near stationary…a few mph in any direction. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dropping into the 50s.

Thursday (Aug 10) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. NNJ elevations might top out in the lower-60s. Skies should be partly sunny to start but should increase in coverage by sunset. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Friday (Aug 11) high temperatures should reach about 80 for most. NNJ elevations should top out in the upper-70s. Skies should be partly sunny with a small chance of rain and thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the 50s.

An early look at the weekend indicates unsettled conditions. Temperatures should top out in the upper-70s/lower-80s for most while overnight lows dip into the 60s. While no single day appears to be a washout, there should be periods of rain and thunderstorms given the destabilized and unsettled differences between the surface and aloft. Let’s revisit this in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™