Wet Pattern Emerges

Discussion: It looks like we’re finally going to enter a wetter pattern. I know it sucks for outdoor interests but it is much needed for our natural water tables. This wet pattern should start between Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM and likely last well into next week. There is a chance of a dryer weekend between this week and next week’s expected rain but no promises at this point and time. Let’s get into the why…

A tropical disturbance has spun up off the SE US. It has still not reached named tropical storm status. It is still classified as “potential tropical cyclone 8.” Whether or not it reaches tropical storm strength before coastal Carolina landfall is irrelevant at this point. Weak tropical storm-like conditions are expected for the coastal Carolina region today but that’s something they can and have easily taken to the face. The anomalous ridging over SE Canada and the NE US will remain in place this week and ultimately slow the coastal system’s northward progression. The remnants of the coastal tropical-origin system will eventually expand into a larger area of lower heights to dominate the upcoming pattern. I expect rainfall to nudge into SNJ at some point between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Most of Tuesday could still be nice, especially NNJ/CNJ. It’s only SNJ that should see the welcome rain package by Tuesday night and it might be more cloudy than rainy. I then expect on-and-off periods of rainfall Wednesday through at least Friday with clouds dominating the sky between rainfall. While it will be cloudy with rain at times, I don’t think rainfall will be the headline. Instead, I think the ECNJ/SENJ coasts will see the most interesting conditions in the form of moderate winds and the potential for minor coastal flooding. These are conditions we’ve seen many times before and are more “outdoor plan canceling” than hazardous. The only areas of hazardous concern IMO are coastal/marine conditions along the ECNJ/SENJ coast. I expect dangerous rip currents for late-season swimmers and a rough ocean for small watercrafts. At this point, coastal flooding is modeled at the minor stage but we cannot take a few isolated moderate flooding instances off the table, especially during high tide. I will be reporting on this system more this week as it slowly creeps into SNJ Tues-Wed and then moves into more of NJ by later Wednesday. Models are split between allowing a nicer and drier weekend vs keeping the system around (pinned under ridge and retrograde back into NJ). We’re going to have to take it a few days at a time. But outside of the coastal concerns (mainly SENJ), this is not that big of a deal safety-wise and again, is much needed water for our grounds.

Monday (Sept 16) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Some of you might have seen a stray light shower this morning but the rest of today (Monday) should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the E/NE away from the ocean but breezier along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. The ocean will be rough this week, starting today (Monday). There will be rip currents and enhanced surf as well as coastal flooding potential. Overnight lows should fall as low as 50 away from the ocean tonight but stay in the lower-60s along the coast from marine influence/onshore winds over the still-warmer ocean.

Tuesday (Sept 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Maybe near-80 in NNJ. NNJ and SNJ should feature two different environments. More clear and comfortable in NNJ. Cloudy/spritzy/breezy for SNJ as the coastal system moves up the S Mid-Atlantic into the N Mid-Atlantic. Coastal/beach concerns will remain hazardous with enhanced surf, rip currents, and flooding potential. Winds should be out of the E/NE…lighter for NNJ, breezier even gusty, for SNJ, especially ECNJ/SENJ. Overnight lows could fall into the 50s for NNJ with increasing clouds. For SNJ, overnight lows should hang in the 60s as more rainfall pushes in from the S.

Wednesday (Sept 18) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely (SNJ favored over NNJ). Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 60s for most with humid and cloudy skies and additional periods of rainfall.

Thursday (Sept 19) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations…many nearing 80. Skies should be cloudy with a humid feel and likely feature more periods of rainfall (SNJ favored over NNJ). Winds should transition to light out of the N. Overnight lows should fall back into the 60s for most with a few showers around.

Friday (Sept 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun and a few showers around (SNJ favored over NNJ). Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall to near-60 with light drizzle around.

An early look at the weekend (Sept 21-22) indicates improvement on most model guidance. There’s a solid chance of a few more of those nicer fall-feeling days (highs near 70, lows 45-55, lower humidity) in the Sat-Sun window before returning back to more of the wet pattern next week. I do have to state the wildcard possibility however of the coastal system hanging around and delivering more rain this weekend. I should have a much better handle on this weekend by this Wednesday. But for now I am leaning 70/30 dry/wet for this weekend. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC