Discussion: A near-stationary Bermuda high will allow multiple disturbances to rotate around its NW quadrant through NJ this weekend. This should produce on-and-off periods of rainfall through Sunday afternoon/evening. There’s a little concern for icing in the NNJ elevations on Friday but most of NJ should stay above-freezing at the surface with plain rain the most likely form of precipitation. Only NNJ elevations would be subject to some wintry precipitation mixing in on Friday. Next week looks mild and under the control of high pressure through at least Thursday. See the below special long-range statement for my concerns about next weekend.
Friday (Feb 23) high temperatures should reach into the 40s for most. NNJ elevations could hang in the mid-to-upper 30s. Skies should be mostly cloudy. On-and-off periods of rain are likely with a small chance of wintry precipitation mixing in for NNJ elevations. Little-to-no accumulation is expected. Winds should be light out of the E/NE for most and possibly a bit breezier along the coast. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s as rain tapers off from W to E.
Saturday (Feb 24) high temperatures should reach into the 50s statewide. A few interior and/or SNJ locations could flirt with breaking 60. Skies should remain mostly cloudy. More on-and-off rainfall is expected. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide.
Sunday (Feb 25) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to near-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should remain mostly cloudy. More on-and-off rainfall is expected but should taper off by late-afternoon/early evening for most. SNJ could hang onto scattered rainfall heading into the evening. Winds should be light out of the SW for most and possibly a bit breezier for the coast. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates a mild first half with temperatures in the 50s for most (less NNJ elevations). High pressure will have control so not seeing much rainfall after this Sunday through about Thursday.
Special Long-Range Statement: A very strong Greenland blocking signal (-NAO) is expected in the February 28-March 5 period. Blocking can trap or stall a surface low that would normally speed out-to-sea in a progressive pattern. Models are starting to key in on the March 2-3 period but it is still very early to be analyzing surface output. The upper-levels remain favorable for synoptic storm development in this period and that’s about all I’m looking at until we get closer within range. By this coming Sunday/Monday there should be a much better idea as to whether a surface low will form and stall in ideal position for coastal and/or wintry impacts to NJ in that March 2-3 signal window. It is possible we could see a surface low retrograde back towards the coast due to the blocking. How close it gets to the east coast would determine the extent of coastal impacts. There is currently no cause for alarm or panic but trust me when I say I’ll be watching this period very closely. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™