Wet and Mild (Dec 14-16)

Discussion: Our upper-level disturbance is moving out and above-average 500mb height anomalies will fill the void. That is until another, but stronger, upper-level disturbance slides through to our S this weekend. At the surface this should mean a cloudy and rainy weekend with NJ warm-sectored. There still exists a minor wintry hazard tonight into tomorrow morning. The lower-levels of the atmosphere might be just right for a phenomena known as freezing drizzle. Please use caution in NNJ until temps rise well-above freezing sometime tomorrow. Looking forward the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE) is underway and will likely send a cold air mass down to NJ by the Christmas period. There is also a storm signal for the Christmas period that I’m continuing to monitor. Right now it’s a little on the warm side but with this setup I would expect many changes between now and then. I’ll be sure to keep you posted. For now, stay dry this weekend!

Friday (Dec 14) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s for most. NNJ elevations might hang in the lower-40s. Skies should be mostly cloudy and relatively mild. Freezing drizzle is possible for NNJ (rare but possible) in the morning but should quickly subside with rising temps. This is also a concern for Thursday night (tonight) in NNJ elevations. Rainfall should begin slightly after sunset. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ as rainfall continues overnight.

Saturday (Dec 15) high temperatures should again reach the upper-40s/lower-50s for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ as scattered rainfall continues overnight.

Sunday (Dec 16) high temperatures should reach the upper-30s/lower-40s for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Rainfall should, for the most part, be wrapping up on Sunday so periods of occasional drizzle and light rain are possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most.

An early look at next week indicates near-average temperatures with no major storm systems showing (for now). Small chances of light rain here and there. Still tracking a winter storm signal in the Christmas time-frame but early indications are too warm for snow. Let’s see how everything looks in a few days. I hope you’re enjoying the new free Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and Android. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™