Watching Tuesday PM for Storms

Discussion: Today started the week off with a warm but pleasant feel with temps in the 80s and dews near or just under 60. Humidity will increase overnight (tonight) and into tomorrow (Tuesday) as warm sector SW flow builds ahead of a cold front Tuesday PM. The cold front on Tuesday PM should feature at least some kind of stormfront. Whether that’s a solid linear segment (everyone sees storms) or broken line (some see storms while others ask why weather forecasters get paid to get it wrong) is yet TBD. But the chance for severe criteria (hail/wind) is on the table for any storms that do form. Should have a better idea tomorrow morning (I’ll update). After the front is through (Wednesday morning-forward), conditions should improve with plenty of sun and lower humidity through at least Friday maybe Saturday. However with low pressure possibly forming just offshore, we could see some convergence-related pop-ups on Thursday. A scenario where 90% of the day is great except for that rogue pop-up that gotcha. But the most noticeable condition Wed-Fri should be dew point temperatures in the 50s. Humidity should then return for the weekend (by Sunday) for run-of-mill July weather conditions. But for this week, Tuesday PM is the only period I am watching for storms. Everything else through the weekend appears mostly nice with just isolated activity at most.

Monday (July 11) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most (closer to 80 for coastal areas). Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s as humidity returns.

Tuesday (July 12) high temperatures should reach into the 90s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with a humid feel. Thunderstorms, possibly severe (wind/hail), are possible during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty, out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for NNJ elevations but should struggle to dip below 70 for the lower 2/3 of NJ.

Wednesday (July 13) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with lesser humidity. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 65-70 range.

Thursday (July 14) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with humidity not too bad. Can’t rule out a pop-up. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Friday (July 15) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds as humidity continues to stay down. Winds should be light out of the W/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

An early look at the weekend indicates temps in the 80-90 range with returning humidity and the isolated pop-up chances that go along with run-of-mill July conditions. Sunday looks a little more unsettled than Saturday but let’s get a little closer before making that call. No major storm systems are expected at this point. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps (ahead of the public). At a buck per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show support.

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC