Discussion: The system that brought rain last night and this morning is still clearing out to sea. A few remnant clouds and sprinkles around but for the most part, improvement is expected tonight through tomorrow. Another system then approaches on Saturday. Looks like clouds move in fully by late-Saturday morning, if not earlier. Rain then moves in between afternoon and evening as a double-barrel low configuration pushes W to E over the E US. There could be enough dynamics for convective precipitation overnight Saturday night which means heavy rain and possibly some embedded thunderstorms. At least rainy and windy with minor coastal flooding possible during high tides Saturday and flash flooding possible Saturday PM into Sunday AM. The main batch of precipitation should finish Sunday morning and clear E out to sea. Then a very strong upper low will be developing over New Jersey for Sunday afternoon into evening/overnight behind the northern of the two surface lows. This will occur during strong W/NW flow over the Great Lakes. It’s a recipe for at least flurries, possibly snow showers, to form and fall across much of NY State and Northern PA. Should they extend far enough, they could push into NWNJ as far down as I-95 in NNJ/CNJ. Accumulations would be little-to-none. Just something to watch for. Otherwise, expect a colder and blistery period from Sunday afternoon through most of Monday…a transient cold air mass behind the departing double-barrel low system but ahead of the approaching E US ridge. Tuesday through next weekend then looks milder under the ridge until another cold front next weekend. It’s a good bet to assume rain with the cold front but that opens the last period I’ll be watching for any late-season snowfall (March 17-23). Nothing showing now other than theoretical colder air mass…not cold enough during the day but cold enough at night. We’ll see but that’s likely the bottom of the 9th (March 17-23) for snow.
Most of New Jersey peaked somewhere in the 50s today with lingering clouds and a few remnant showers. Skies should gradually improve through this evening and eventually clear some overnight. Overnight winds should be light out of the N/NE as temps fall to the 30-40 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Friday (March 8) high temperatures should try hard to reach 60 away from the ocean. Immediate coastal ECNJ/SENJ should be held closer to 50 from marine influence. Most daytime hours should feature sun, but clouds should gradually increase afternoon into evening. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall to the mid-to-upper 30s for most NJ locations.
Saturday (March 9) high temperatures should range from lower-40s to lower-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should start possibly mixed but likely cloudy by late-morning/noonish. More rain is expected to move in any time after noon but likely by evening. Overnight rainfall could be heavy at times with thunderstorms possible. Winds should pick up off the ocean by afternoon (out of the E/SE), felt most by coasties. Minor coastal flooding is on the table along ECNJ/SENJ coasts during high tides and flash flooding is on the table statewide for heavy rainfall, especially overnight. Overnight lows should hover in the low-to-mid 40s as rain and wind push to sunrise Sunday.
Sunday (March 10) high temperatures should struggle to escape the mid-to-upper 40s statewide. Expect temps to crash with sunset. Skies could start with early remnant rain but eventually improve my late morning. Afternoon should be sunny, possibly a bit earlier. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall sharply to the 25-35 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Snow flurries and showers are possible late-afternoon into overnight with little-to-no accumulation likely. NNJ/CNJ areas NW of I-95 are most favored for such.
An early look at next week indicates a cold and windy Monday followed by improvement for the rest of the week. Tuesday into the weekend are 50s/60s with sun. Next weekend looks somewhat unsettled from this point. Likely another cold front. Then we’ll enter the last period I’ll probably be watching for any snow potential (March 17-23)…the bottom of the ninth.
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™