Warmth Doubles Down

Discussion: Today (Monday) is obviously another pleasant day. Temps have already hit 70 almost statewide with a few coastal locations still in the 60s. Skies are mixed, and it should stay this way overnight as temps drop into the 40s/50s. Tuesday looks like the only cooler and unsettled day. The very bottom tip of a progressive trough will swing through with a shortwave. A corresponding weak surface low should track across Delmarva from NW to SE and bring precipitation to at least SNJ, maybe some of CNJ. But NNJ should stay mostly dry. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning looks like the coolest point of the week as the low moves out and high pressure approaches with northerly flow. Wednesday through Friday should then feature stable sinking air from slow-tracking high pressure dominance. That goes for much of the E US. Highs away from the ocean should reach into the 80s while coastal areas hang in the 65-72 range during this period. It will feel warm but not unpleasant. Most flow from Wed-Fri is either NW or W/NW so that should keep the humidity down but allow peak high temps to pop in the drier environment. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that forecasted 80-82 turn into mid-80s maybe even upper-80s. It’s good we had all that rainfall because the drier NW flow pattern will continue to wick the surface of moisture. A mostly dry cold front is then expected to pass through Friday night. I’ll be watching this period in case it becomes more of a stormfront scenario. But right now it looks dry. This should set the stage for a gorgeous weekend with temps back into the 70s with dry and clear conditions. Average NJ temps right now are low-to-mid 70s. By the end of May they will be mid-to-upper 70s. With the exception of this Tuesday, we’re either near or slightly above average for the foreseeable future. Beyond this week is still too uncertain. But some early indicators are suggesting a few cooler periods before we really get going with an El Nino summer heat pattern.

Monday (May 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-40s to lower-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Clouds should increase as rain moves in for Tuesday.

Tuesday (May 9) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely for S locations. SNJ is favored most for rainfall. NNJ is favored least. There should be a rain cutoff somewhere between SNJ and CNJ. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE, breeziest along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should fall back into the 40s statewide, maybe upper-30s for NNJ elevations.

Wednesday (May 10) high temperatures should reach back into the 70s for most of NJ. Immediate ocean-facing coasts might linger in the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-40s to lower-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (May 11) high temperatures should break 80 in a few spots with the coast even coming up to 70 or greater. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should stay in the 50s statewide.

Friday (May 12) high temperatures should reach into the 80s again, this time with slightly increased humidity. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 55-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates stellar conditions. Highs in the upper-70s/lower-80s. Lows in the 50s.  Clear and dry conditions. Let’s take another look in a few days to make sure this idea holds. Otherwise, have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™