Warmer Week Expected (May 15-19)

A much warmer week is expected than what we’ve recently become used to. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: Low pressure is currently very organized at the surface in the Gulf of Maine. Coastal New England is experiencing a run-of-mill nor’easter. At the upper-levels, a negative-tilted trough has captured this organized system and the upper-level low is nearly stacked overhead. This system will slowly pull away during the first part of the week (Monday-Tuesday). With that said, the western side of the system’s cyclonic flow will produce northerly flow until it’s out of here. Even with brisk Canadian breeze/winds though, the sun angle is so high that it should win out and produce pleasant, even warm, conditions during daylight hours. Monday and Tuesday night should still fall into the 50s statewide.  500mb heights will then build into a ridge over most of the E U S from Wednesday-forward. A Bermuda high will lock in for as far as I can confidently see (through this next weekend) which will lock in southerly flow and the warmth/humidity that goes along with it. I’ll be watching for any sea-breeze induced showers/t-storms. It’s still a bit early for that but you never know. Wednesday and Thursday look like the warmest days but Wednesday through Sunday looks warmer overall. I do see some possibly unsettled conditions next weekend but no washout systems. Maybe we deal with quick passing frontal precipitation here and there. I’ll have a much better handle on that come Thursday evening.

Monday (May 15) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ has a shot at breaking 70. Skies should be mostly sunny and breezy/gusty out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most, possibly the 40s for NNJ elevations.

Tuesday (May 16) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most (a kick up in warmth from Monday). Interior CNJ/SNJ has a shot at breaking 80. Skies should be mostly sunny with relaxed winds out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 50s statewide. At some point we should deal with fog as the warm and moist air initially invades the existing cooler air mass.

Wednesday (May 17) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most (a kick up in warmth from Tuesday). Interior CNJ/SNJ should flirt with and probably break into the 90s. Coastal areas could hang in the 70s due to marine influence (ocean temps still in 50s). Skies should be mostly sunny with a noticeable increase in humidity. You can never rule out a micro-chance of an isolated shower/t-storm with this kind of weather, especially along the coast with sea-breeze fronts. Most should stay dry though. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should struggle to fall below 65 statewide. Should feel amazing!

Thursday (May 18) high temperatures should break 90 in many places (the warmest day of the week). Coastal regions should again be held in the 70s but possibly mid-to-upper 70s (wow for the barrier islands). Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and summery clouds (micro-chance of isolated showers/t-storms). Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should only fall into the 60s for most. Areas that break 90 during the day could struggle to dip below 70.

Friday (May 19) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. Coastal areas should again hang in the 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny and slightly less humid thanks to light winds out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

An early look at the weekend indicates more warmth and humidity out of the SW. We might deal with some unsettled frontal conditions but no washouts are apparent like the last few weekends. Let’s see how we look Thursday evening.

I took the above photo from Surf City, NJ last year. This is a common look to the sun setting through humid skies (maximum light refraction). “When it looks like that, it’s going to be hot tomorrow.” -someone. My local gut instinct anticipates this look and feel Wednesday and/or Thursday evening. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™