Warmer Pattern Builds

Discussion: That was a rough Saturday. I didn’t like the feel of it all day. The clearing we had between rain ending late-morning and the storms arriving early-evening felt uncomfortably mild and destabilized. It allowed the sun to heat the surface under much colder air aloft. The thermal gradient from the surface up to aloft was intense, hence all the hail reports. The day had that feel to it…much justified by the NWS to issue the tornado watch and ultimately warnings. The front then blew threw and the front side of high pressure kept us cooler yesterday into today. Now the high is offshore and we’ll see a prolonged period of S/SW flow through Thursday. I imagine a lot of “sick call outs” in the next few days as temps push into the 70s under sunny skies. On Thursday we’ll see another cold front likely push rain and thunderstorms through NJ during PM hours after a swampy start to the day. Friday and the weekend look cooler but not cold. Highs in the low-to-mid 60s type stuff…feels great in the sun. But then chilly nights in the 30s/40s. Then the milder pattern reloads early next week and for the foreseeable future beyond. So Thursday thunderstorms are really the only things I’ll be watching this week. Otherwise the entire week should feature run-of-mill spring buildup conditions.

Monday (April 3) high temperatures are hugging the upper-40s/lower-50s along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts but are pushing into the upper-50s/lower-60s away from the ocean and up in elevations. Expect a few more degrees of rise by about 3-4pm. Skies are mostly sunny and winds are light-to-breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most NJ areas.

Tuesday (April 4) high temperatures should push into the 70s for most NJ areas. Coastal regions could hang lower near-60. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should stay above 50 for much of NJ. NWNJ elevations down into 40s maybe.  

Wednesday (April 5) high temperatures should at least reach near-60 for most NJ areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ would have the best shot at 70+. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from 50 to 60 elevations to coasts.

Thursday (April 6) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for many NJ locations, possibly take a run at 80 for interior CNJ/SNJ. Elevations and immediate coastal areas should hang the lowest either near or just under 70. Likely the warmest day of the week. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with showers and thunderstorms possible for PM hours. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most NJ areas.

Friday (April 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ areas. A cooler feel after Tues-Thurs but still nice, especially in the sun. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light to breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s from elevations to coasts. This could result in frost advisories across CNJ/SNJ heading into Saturday morning.

An early look at the weekend indicates low-to-mid 60s for most NJ areas. Maybe some spots hanging in upper-50s. Not a warm swampy weekend…looks milder and drier. We’re cooler as I said last week from about April 8-12. Cooler but not cold. Still great feeling days in the sun. It looks like April 12-13 is when we will transition further into more of a sustained warm pattern where highs are commonly in the 60s/70s. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™