Warmer Conditions Expected (May 26-29)

Discussion: Happy Memorial Day everyone! A moment of silence, appreciation and gratitude to those who have fallen to protect our amazing way of life…

The upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ through at least Friday. This will correlate with above-average 500mb geopotential height anomalies for the E US and a locked-in Bermuda high. Therefore we’re looking at prolonged S flow (from W side of Bermuda high flow) from pretty much now through Friday. For most of NJ this means much warmer and more humid conditions. But for the ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas (that run S/SW to N/NE), it means onshore flow from the S over a “still cooler Atlantic Ocean.” The marine sea surface temperature profile should be in the 60s though since the source is to the S of NJ, not the colder 50s stuff to our E/NE. With that said I think much of NJ breaks 80 this week but the coast hangs in the mid-60s to near-70 range. There won’t be a cold front until likely Saturday. But the warmer setup could produce diurnal instability capable of sparking isolated showers and thunderstorms. It just goes with the transitioning warmer climatology of the season. You also could have sea breeze fronts back into NJ from the E/SE which sometimes act as meso pop-up storm fronts. We’ll see. But mostly likely NJ is looking at a strong taste of favorable and summery conditions this week. Saturday should be a cold front day which means more clouds than sun and likely rain/t-storms. We’ll have to see later this week if the front will dominate all of Saturday, or just a fraction of Saturday, with clouds, rain and storms. Sunday through ~Tuesday then looks gorgeous with mild and dry conditions associated with a new area of high pressure in control of the entire region.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecasts are statewide for New Jersey.

Tuesday (May 26) high temperatures should reach 80 for most areas away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas in ECNJ/SENJ could hang closer to 70. Skies should transition from morning clouds to afternoon sun. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall to near-60.

Wednesday (May 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ has the best chance to reach/break 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds for most of the day. Can’t rule out an isolated pop-up shower or t-storm in this pattern. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 60s.

Thursday (May 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Immediate coastal areas could hang closer to 70. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds for most with again the caveat of an isolated pop-up possible with the warmer pattern. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s.

Friday (May 29) high temperatures should break 80 for many areas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see areas away from the ocean run up pretty good into the 80s. Even immediate coastal areas should break into the 70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds for most with, once again, the caveat of an isolated pop-up shower or thunderstorm possible. Winds should be light for most out of the S/SW, possibly breezier for the SENJ coast. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s.

An early look at the weekend indicates clouds and sun for Saturday followed by gorgeous conditions Sunday. Everyone have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™