Discussion: I’m seeing a lot of dominant upper-level ridging over the east coast for much of the next two weeks. The lower-mid levels support the expected warm and muggy feel through this weekend and during the Nate remnant impact period (Monday-Wednesday). After that, the lower-mid levels advertise a cooler period but still under heavy upper-level ridging. This would put the Wednesday-forward period into the “beautiful fall weather” category…not too hot and not too chilly. I don’t see the ridge breaking down until possibly ~October 20th. With that said, I would expect at least one or two more warmer spells in October but they should be transient. Eventually a trough is going to swing through and remind us what time of year it is. I just don’t see that happening over the next 1-2 weeks. As far as this weekend goes, it looks warm and humid with instability-driven showers/t-storms not off the table on Saturday (a dry day for most) and light showers possible on Sunday statewide. The rainy/breezy remnants of Nate should hold off until the Monday-Wednesday period.
Friday (Oct 6) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most. A few degrees cooler for NNJ elevations and a few degrees warmer for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should just dip below 70 for interior CNJ/SNJ. NNJ elevations and mostly everyone else should fall to the upper-50s/lower-60s.
Clover Market in Collingswood, NJ is this weekend!
Saturday (Oct 7) high temperatures should reach into the low-to-mid 80s for most. Immediate coastal areas could hang in the upper-70s. Skies should be partly sunny with a humid feel. Given the warmth and humidity, an isolated shower or even t-storm cannot be ruled out. Most should stay dry though. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.
Sunday (Oct 8) high temperatures should reach near-80 statewide. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with light passing showers possible (nuisance caliber). Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should only fall into the 60s again for most, and possibly even only 70 across SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates a wet start. Nate is currently a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Nate is expected to make landfall, possibly as a hurricane, between Saturday night and Sunday morning somewhere between the New Orleans and Pensacola, FL span. This places the gulf coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and W Florida at risk of direct hit. There is still some debate on how much Nate could intensify, over open gulf waters, before making landfall. Local residents and traveling guests of that area are encouraged to follow their trusted local weather sources and authorities regarding evacuations/etc. After landfall, Nate’s remnants are expected to pass directly over New Jersey as a 1-3 inch rain event with breezy/gusty (but manageable) winds between Monday and Wednesday. Unfortunately this will continue the warm and muggy feel through that time period. After that, our area should see seasonably-average temperatures and conditions from Wednesday-forward. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC