Discussion: Upper-level ridging, currently over the E US, should be flattened by a shallow upper-level Canadian disturbance this weekend. At the surface this should produce a warm and humid Friday running into the first part of Saturday. By Saturday evening, a weak and mostly-dry cold front should produce more comfortable conditions. The front should then hang either across SNJ or just to the S of SNJ heading into Sunday. The former would mean light rain in SNJ on Sunday. The latter would mean most of SNJ stays dry. Either way NNJ and CNJ should escape the precipitation but SNJ still holds uncertainty. Next week another high should help pump the E US ridge up again. This will produce warm and humid conditions at the surface. I’m then watching two frontal passages. A weaker one Wednesday night-Thursday morning and a stronger one for next weekend.
Friday (Sept 21) high temperatures should range from lower-70s to upper-70s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy (a few breaks of sun) with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ.
Saturday (Sept 22) high temperatures should range from lower-70s to upper-70s NNJ to SNJ. High temperatures could possibly be reached earlier in the day as a weak cold front drops through later in the afternoon/evening. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Can’t rule out a few nuisance sprinkle in case the front produces. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows could fall as low as 50 for NNJ elevations. The rest of the state should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.
Sunday (Sept 23) high temperatures might fail to escape the 60s for NNJ. CNJ and SNJ might just break 70. Skies should be mostly cloudy statewide with a small chance of light rain (mainly for SNJ). Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to lower-60s NNJ to SNJ with most of the state between falling into the 50s.
An early look at next week indicates a few warmer days mid-week where high temperatures could flirt with 80 inland. Two cold front passages are expected. First a weaker one Wednesday night-Thursday morning and then a for real “where’s my hoodie? oh crap we should change the air filter since the heat is now running” cold front next weekend. How long the true-fall air mass hangs around is too far out to determine. Let’s take another look in a few days. For now everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™