Discussion: The rainfall situation remains dire. The front-side of high pressure gave many locations their first freeze overnight (Sunday night into Monday morning). NJ conditions will now moderate to above-average temperatures as the high sits overhead today (Monday) and moves offshore tomorrow-Wednesday—ultimately sending in even warmer return flow on the its backside for Wednesday-Thursday. This is in concurrence with an upper jet stationed far to the N of NJ with mostly above-average geopotential height anomalies over NJ (prolonged ridging). Thursday should be the warmest it gets this week as a cold front is expected to push through NJ (from NW to SE) on Friday. Friday might still get a bit mild during the day (not as mild as Thursday) but from sunset-forward into the weekend, we’ll return to a seasonably average airmass. Friday’s frontal rainfall might be the most rainfall we’ve seen in a while. Not drought-busting but any rainfall is well-receipted at this point. The weekend looks dry but then some hope is showing up next week in the form of synoptic rainfall. Some casual rain signals I’ll be watching are Nov 6-7 and Nov 10-13. Please keep in mind that Thursday will feel incredibly warm for anyone in a full Halloween costume prior to sundown. It will cool to a more reasonable trick-or-treating temperature with loss of sunlight but it will not be a crisp night feel until Friday night.
Monday (Oct 28) high temperatures should max in the 60-65 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas should drop to the 45-50 range.
Tuesday (Oct 29) high temperatures should reach the upper-60s/lower-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out an extremely isolated shower, especially for NNJ. Let’s give it a 1% chance. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Wednesday (Oct 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Thursday (Oct 31) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 80 hit/broken for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should hang high in the 60-65 range.
Friday (Nov 1) high temperatures should reach the 60-65 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few showers possible along a front…but nothing that’s going to bust the drought. Winds should be light to breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 35-45 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as the cold front pushes through and sets up a cooler weekend.
An early look at the weekend (Nov 2-3) indicates cooler conditions more seasonably average…afternoon highs near-60 and overnight lows in the 30s/40s. Unfortunately, for drought concerns, the weekend looks dry. But otherwise, a gorgeous mid-fall weekend is expected. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC