Warm Conditions Expected (April 30-May 4)

Discussion: An upper-level disturbance is moving out of the region today but not before dropping some clouds and rainfall across NENJ/Monmouth County by tonight. For this reason, today will be the coldest day of the week. After that is the invasion of warm air…our first taste of summer. An area of high pressure will float through the southern Mid-Atlantic US from W to E and deliver a period of warmer W flow Tuesday through Friday. A weak cold front is then expected to slowly pass through between Thursday night and Saturday morning. This could feature isolate-to-scattered pockets of rain and thunderstorms. This also means that SENJ and NWNJ could be worlds apart on Friday during the frontal passage (cool/dry/breezy for NWNJ and warm/moist/calm for SENJ). I’ll be monitoring the likely thunderstorm intensity this week and will report if necessary. Otherwise, I’ve seen more impressive frontal passages. This should set up a beautiful spring weekend followed by the return of the hotter stuff next week.

FIRE SAFETY ALERT: The next few days will feature dry and breezy conditions as we warm up. This presents an elevated risk of forest fire. Please use extra caution and common sense to help collectively reduce the forest fire risk. Thank you for your consideration and understanding!

Monday (April 30) high temperatures should only reach just into the 50s for NNJ. CNJ and SNJ, especially away from the ocean, should reach into the 60s. Skies should be partly sunny with rain possible. NENJ and Monmouth County are favored for rainfall. Don’t shoot me but NWNJ could actually see some non-accumulating snowflakes. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (May 1) high temperatures should reach into the 70s statewide. Interior CNJ/SNJ have the best shot at breaking 80. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fail to dip below 50 statewide.

Wednesday (May 2) high temperatures should have no problem breaking 80 in many locations. NNJ and CNJ could take a run at 85. SNJ and especially the SENJ coast could hang in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should again fail to dip below 50 and in some cases 60.

Thursday (May 3) high temperatures should again reach into the 80s in many locations. Interior CNJ/SNJ actually have shot at 90 depending on cloud coverage. SENJ should again struggle to break 80. Skies should be clearer for SNJ but partly-to-mostly cloudy for NNJ. Humidity should be noticeably increased. Rain showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially during afternoon-evening hours, with NNJ favored for such over SNJ. SNJ could stay dry, sunny and warm. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fail to dip below 60.

Friday (May 4) high temperatures should max out in the 70s for NNJ and coastal regions. Interior CNJ/SNJ have a shot at breaking 90 again but should at least pop into the 80s. Skies should be partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, especially during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s/lower-60s statewide.

An early look at the weekend indicates beautiful conditions behind the Friday PM/Saturday AM cold front. Early-season shore traffic alert! Temperatures should back away from the 80s/90s and return to the 70s with partly sunny skies. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s/50s but likely stay above the 39F frost threshold statewide. Long-range model guidance indicates a return of the warmer stuff we’ll see this week for next week. Let’s take a look at everything in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™