Warm and Unsettled (May 28-31)

Discussion: The upper jet should basically fap NNJ this week from New England latitude. This will change Friday when brought S over NJ via cold frontal passage. In the meantime this will produce ridging for the SE US but not necessarily for the Mid-Atlantic US. We’ll have N stream convergence near the Great Lakes which should keep the Mid-Atlantic destabilized under strong shear-enabling upper-level W flow. The surface will get warm this week which will further destabilize the region for isolated pop-ups. The best thunderstorm dynamics (shear + lifting dynamics) should occur Tuesday PM as a weakening low drags a front through very unstable air. The surface should maximize in temperature Thursday which means isolated pop-ups are not off the table. I’d say such isolated pop-ups are possible on any day of this week. We don’t have a high overhead with dry air mass. We have a warm air mass but with instability and uncertainty. The thunderstorm events that occur will be better-called in the mesoscale forecasting range. From this distance I only feel comfortable stating the widespread general threat of downpours and thunderstorms. Once Friday afternoon rolls around we should have a weak area of high pressure moving in from the W/NW. That should result in refreshing air out of the NW to set up a great weekend start.

Tuesday (May 28) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most. WCNJ and SWNJ have the best shot at breaking 80 while the immediate ECN/SENJ coastal regions hang in the upper-60s/near-70. Skies should be partly sunny with rain and thunderstorms around especially during PM hours. Thunderstorms could be severe with NWNJ/WCNJ/SWNJ favored for such. Marine interaction could weaken thunderstorms for all of ENJ but still keep your guard up! You can never rule out hail or a tornado with this kind of setup. The most reasonable expectation however are for strong-to-severe thunderstorms with mostly straight-line winds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (May 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most maybe breaking 80 in usual warmer WCNJ/SWNJ spots. Skies should be partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms around. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to lower-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (May 30) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most with 90+ possible away from immediate coastal areas. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with showers and thunderstorms around especially during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (May 31) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most. SNJ in general (S of I-195) could get closer to or break 80. Skies should start cloudy with remnant showers clearing out but transition to clear skies through late-morning and afternoon. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows could fall into the 40s for NWNJ elevations but hang near-60 along immediate coastal areas. All areas between would fall into the 50s.

An early look at the weekend indicates a dry and pleasant start (Friday PM into Saturday with a slightly unsettled look to Saturday PM into Sunday. The upward trend in sustained warmth and humidity should continue into the following week. Let’s take a closer look in a few days for the full weekend outlook. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC