Discussion: Upper-level ridging will temporarily give way to a shortwave/ULL between Sunday-Tuesday. That will eventually cool us off a little at the surface. But from now through Sunday morning the heat and humidity should remain. The dynamics Saturday, especially Saturday afternoon/early-evening, are interesting as the shortwave approaches from the N/NW. This will put much of the region in an area of positive vorticity advection and under divergence. These atmospheric physics could enhance the development dynamics of thunderstorm cells. Based on what I’m seeing the Northeast US looks stormier than the Mid-Atlantic US. All of NJ however should still plan for afternoon/early-evening thunderstorms, some possibly severe. By the end of Sunday a cold front should roll through with more impact on humidity than temperatures. Sunday should still start warm but by Sunday night you should feel the relief. This relief should last through Monday and into some of Tuesday before the ridge rebuilds and loads the surface with more heat and humidity.
Friday (June 28) high temperatures should easily reach into the 80s for most areas. Areas away from the ocean, especially SWNJ/WCNJ, have the best chance to break 90. Coastal areas should max out cooler via sea breeze. Skies should be mostly sunny and humid. You can never rule out isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms in this kind of setup but nothing scattered/widespread is expected. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to low-70s NNJ to SNJ.
Saturday (June 29) high temperatures should reach a few degrees hotter than Friday. Skies should start mostly sunny and build cloud coverage throughout the day with a good chance for afternoon/early-evening thunderstorms. They have the potential to meet severe criteria. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to low-70s NNJ to SNJ.
Sunday (June 30) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. A few spots could flirt with 90 away from the ocean. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with less humidity. A few isolated thunderstorms might still be around especially for NNJ/NENJ. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates more slightly above-average temperatures with increased humidity. No major rain systems are currently showing but isolated pop-ups are always possible in a hot pattern. Let’s see how it looks on Sunday. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™