Discussion: First of all, my family would like to wish everyone a Happy 4th of July! The upper-levels still indicate the steep progressive trough nearby to our E and NE. There’s also a correlating surface low to our E but all of this is about to slip away further to the E, allowing traditional ridging to build over the E US by the end of this weekend and into next week. This means positive 500mb geopotential height anomalies, SW flow, relentless dew point temperatures and all the fun that goes with that (heat, humidity, pop-up showers and thunderstorms, etc.). But not a washout day recipe. In fact most of the upcoming days should be sunny through morning and early afternoon. You just have to watch out for afternoon-evening pop-up showers and thunderstorms that like to build in this soupy humid storm fuel. All it takes is a small break in ~700mb capping inversion and/or a sea breeze front, aggressive enough (as a meso-front), to produce adequate lifting of such soupy storm fuel into colder air aloft. That is what forms the condensating cumulonimbus (popcorn storm) clouds. So in summary it looks summery this weekend and into next week… hot, humid, mostly sunny but chances for pop-up showers and thunderstorms on any given day (especially between afternoon and evening hours).
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).
Friday (July 3) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most areas. CNJ/SNJ areas away from the ocean have the best chance to run up into the 90s closer to 100. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with PM showers and thunderstorms possible. Humidity should be noticeably felt. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Unless a sea breeze front forms with E/SE winds then even the beaches will approach 90. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.
Saturday (July 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Coastal regions might hang closer to 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.
Sunday (July 5) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most areas. Coastal regions closer to 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates hot and humid conditions. Most areas should reach into the 90s. Coastal regions should reach into the 80s. While no major thunderstorm outbreaks or large organized storms are modeled, the hazy, hot and humid environment is capable of producing pop-up showers and thunderstorms on any day, especially between late-afternoon and early-evening hours. Let’s see how it all looks on Sunday. Have a great 4th of July weekend. Please stay as cool and hydrated as possible but most importantly please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™