Warm and Dry. Go Figure.

Discussion: The trough has moved out and now the E US will be under the influence of a ridge this weekend into mid next week. This means above-average temperatures and continued dry conditions. The drought monitors are really starting to bark. The trees are stressed and emitting sticky sappy drops in some areas. The forest fire potential grows. We need rain badly and I don’t see much of it through the rest of what looks like a warm and dry finish to October. We’ll see another transient trough next ~Thursday but then it’s right back to more ridging by next weekend. There remains no tropic threat to NJ. Despite the lack of rainfall since summer, this weekend is going to be beautiful for outdoor activities. All the pumpkin picking, hayriding, preserves can buying, people should be happy about viewing foliage and doing all the fall things. Expect mild days, chilly nights and possibly some foggy mornings as warmer air mass advects into NJ.

Friday (Oct 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range drastically, from near-freezing for NNJ elevations to near-50 along the SENJ coast. Most of NJ should drop into the upper-30s to mid-40s range.

Saturday (Oct 19) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Coastal areas could hang in the upper-60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from 35-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (Oct 20) high temperatures should flirt with breaking 80 for areas away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Otherwise, another day in the 70s for NJ but likely the warmest day of the weekend. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week (Oct 21-25) indicates the warmer and drier conditions lasting through about Wednesday. Thursday, we should take a step back down to average temperatures for this time of year. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps (ahead of the public). At a buck per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show support.

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™