Warm and Dry

Discussion: I really enjoy these current conditions…when fall temporarily wins the tug of war towards the end of a summer.  We’re allowed to have multiple favorites in a four-season state. The tropical mid-summer feel (if you are near pool, beach, etc.). That first mild spring day. The chilling snow-dampened roar of a mid-winter blizzard. To each their own. But for this week and just a few more, we’re still inside of calendar summer while being a first step into meteorological fall. The early taste of fall conditions will come to an end after tonight as a warmer air mass invades. We’ll be on the S side of some a few ridges over the next week or so. Much more anomalously high for Canada than us. This means summery-feeling days but not hot with oppressive humidity. Perfect local summer conditions IMO. But a step away from the recent early taste of fall conditions. Seeing little-to-no rainfall over the next 7-day period. Great for outdoor interests. Not so great for water tables. A tropical system could form in the W Caribbean over the next few days and impact the coastal region between Houston, TX and New Orleans, LA mid-week. But it looks like the high pressure system situation over New England and the Mid-Atlantic US would hold any of that energy and moisture more towards the C US/Plains. So a very warm and dry week ahead.

Monday (Sept 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds and a pleasant feel due to lower humidity.Winds should remain light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (Sept 10) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with lower humidity holding on and making it feel like a pleasant warm day. SNJ/SNJ could see a small uptick in humidity with onshore sea breeze front but nothing even remotely serious. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 45-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (Sept 11) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s away from the ocean. Immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions should be held in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with low humidity remaining in place for NNJ and CNJ. SNJ could see slightly higher humidity from marine influence but again like Tuesday, nothing serious…just not as dry-feeling as NNJ/CNJ. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from 50-62 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (Sept 12) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s away from the ocean. Immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions should be held again in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with low-to-reasonable humidity. Again, SNJ/SENJ has a better chance to see slightly higher humidity. Winds should be light out of the E/SE, perhaps breezier along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (Sept 13) high temperatures should be a repeat of Wed-Thurs. Low-to-mid 80s away from the ocean and mid-to-upper 70s for ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend (Sept 14-15) indicates the warmest days of this warm stretch. Temps should easily reach into the 80s for all with 90 not off the table for some of the traditionally warmer locations of interior CNJ/SNJ. Dews in the 60-65 range will remind us that it is still calendar summer until the equinox. But it won’t be peak-July hazy, hot, and humid. More like a nice summer day. It looks like the warmer stretch should end after Monday with expected high temps knocked back down into the 70s for Tuesday-forward. Tropics remain eerily quiet for peak season. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™