Discussion: A low pressure system is currently tracking into SE Canada over the Great Lakes. A cold front is attached to this system via Norwegian Cyclone Model definition which will pass through between Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Further low pressure enhancement along and just ahead of the cold front could spell heavy rainfall on Tuesday. Given the convective nature of this frontal passage, the precipitation area could be thin but slow moving from W to E over NJ. Up to a few inches of rain are possible along with thunderstorms and gusty winds. Once that clears out, we’re chilly and dry inside of a trough from Wednesday through Friday morning. We then reload with warmer southerly flow for Friday afternoon through Saturday night. This should allow high temperatures to reach back into the 60s. Sunday and into next week then looks chillier as a stronger trough moves through the region. The volatility continues which is not uncommon for our current weak La Nina state of the ENSO. Therefore the warmer periods will keep becoming more transient in nature and will reach lower and lower for high temperatures. These transient last few gasps of the warmer weather will likely fall between longer periods of chillier air mass.
Monday (Oct 23) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s statewide. Skies should be partly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should hang in the 60s as rain approaches.
Tuesday (Oct 24) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the S/SE. Immediate coastal areas should see the highest wind gusts possibly in the 30-40mph range. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide with a few remnant showers possible.
Wednesday (Oct 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s statewide. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should easily fall into the 30s for interior/elevations. Areas closer to the ocean could hang in the lower-40s. Regardless, a noticeable drop in temperature.
Thursday (Oct 26) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 50s statewide. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most. I wouldn’t be surprised to see NNJ elevations dip below freezing. Only the immediate coast should hang just above 40.
Friday (Oct 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most with coastal areas hanging in the 50s.
An early look at the weekend indicates Saturday being the warmest day with highs reaching the mid-to-upper 60s. As of right now Saturday looks dry until about midnight. Sunday is then expected to be unsettled with more rain possible and possibly some moderate winds. Sunday and into next week looks chillier with highs maxing out in the 50s.
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™