Volatile Temps

Discussion: New Jersey will stay under below-average height anomalies until about Thursday night (lower heights). This will allow for a cooler stretch (highs only reach lower-50s and drop into 30s at night – coldest day Thursday). A weak and unorganized area of low pressure will track through tonight (Monday night) and bring just rain and breeze through tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Then we’re likely dry for the rest of the stretch (Tuesday through Thursday). A progressive ridge should then build for Friday and Saturday allowing much warmer temperatures (highs in the 60s/maybe 70s). At this time, Friday looks sunny/dry and Saturday looks cloudy/rainy as a wet warm sector pushes in. Saturday PM into Sunday AM would then be the cold front yielding a dry but colder Sunday into Monday. In looking ahead, another warmup would then start next Tuesday-forward…in theory. Some longer-range signals then indicate a below-average period mid-month but let’s take every 7 days at a time. Our average temperature will climb from upper-50s (today) to lower-60s (mid-April) and ultimately near-70 by end of April. So a mid-April day that is -2 below average temperature is still a 60-degree day. In my experience this period (now through mid-May) is best experienced with average to slightly-below average temperatures…still considered nice days. Above average during this time can feel too “winter to summer” again IMO.  

Monday (March 27) high temperatures are well into the 50s for most (as of Monday afternoon), into the 60s for some, but hanging in the upper-40s along the immediate coast. We can thank SE winds off the 45-degree ocean for that. Away from the immediate ocean is more goodness like yesterday (Sunday). Skies should increase in cloud coverage from now through evening hours. Periods of rain should eventually push in from the SW. Overnight low temperatures should drop into the lower-40s for most areas and rain and breeze continues into Tuesday morning.  

Tuesday (March 28) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ areas. Skies should improve from morning into to mid-day once any early-to-mid-morning showers clear out. Winds should be breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (March 29) high temperatures should reach a few degrees higher in the 50s than Tuesday. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 elevations to coasts.

Thursday (March 30) high temperatures should struggle to escape the upper-40s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ would have the best chance to push into the lower-50s. The coldest feeling day of the week however skies should be mostly sunny with light NW flow. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to near-40 elevations to coasts.

Friday (March 31) high temperatures should reach well into the 50s for all NJ areas. Likely a decent portion of NJ into the 60s with 70 not off the table. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. I foresee lots of sick time used on this day lol. Winds should be light out of the S/SW (this could keep the immediate SENJ coast cooler). Overnight lows should stay above 50 statewide.

An early look at the weekend indicates Friday likely being the nicest day of the weekend. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the weekend (into lower-70s) but also the most unsettled day (clouds and rain). Sunday looks dry but colder with NW flow. Let’s see how it looks in a few days. I can’t promise there won’t be a few more periods of below-average conditions (high temps to lower-50s instead of 60+). But I can promise that the warmups will contain more spring bite as we progress through April. Already looking at a period next week where 70-80 is possible during the day. Have a great week and please be safe! JC  

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps (ahead of the public). At a buck per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show support.

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™