Volatile Temperatures

Discussion: A tough will swing through and dominate the NJ weather pattern this weekend. There’s a surface low passing to our N with a very dry cold front attached to its S. Temps should reach well into the 50s Saturday, possibly flirting with 60 before the front pushes through and W/NW winds become gusty. Should be by late-afternoon/evening. We then fall seriously from the 53-60 range to the 20-25 range NNJ to SNJ for Saturday night. Sunday pushes into the 30s for daytime highs but then falls to the 10-20 range going into Monday morning. An absolute roller coaster as Monday remains cold but Tues-Wed warms back up to near-60. We then stabilize a bit Thursday into the weekend with highs in the 40s and lows just below freezing. Another trough might try to swing a surface low through Sunday-Monday which could trigger some snow if realized to fruition. Sun angle and climatology are working against stickage though, especially during the day. It needs to puke overnight for accumulations. But yeah, that’s a small possibility for Sunday-Monday (March 9-10) and the teleconnections actually support a W US ridge/E US trough for that period. I wouldn’t hold my breath but we’ll see. It is still winter.

Forecast

Saturday (March 1) high temperatures should range from lower-50s to near-60 from NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun, clouds, and a few spotty showers. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should dip way back down into the 20s as winds remain breezy. Quite a temp spread from daytime highs!

Sunday (March 2) high temperatures should push into the 30s for most NJ areas. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should remain breezy but out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 10 to 20 from NNJ elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week (Dec 3-7) indicates the colder stuff hanging on for Monday, but not as cold as Sunday. We then moderate to 50s for Tuesday and near/breaking 60 for Wednesday. Thursday into the weekend then looks colder again but closer to average…highs in 40s lows just below freezing. Seeing some rain Wednesday into Thursday and then a snow signal Sunday-Monday (March 9-10). Don’t hold your breath. I’m only mentioning it because there’s some agreement on the data. It could very easily drop off in a few days. We’ll see though. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC