Discussion: High pressure is currently approaching behind the cold front. This will reinforce a colder and windy flow for Friday and colder calm day Saturday. By Sunday the high should be over the ocean which will reverse the flow to the S…producing a milder Sunday into Monday. Another cold front is expected push through Monday and usher in a solid trough of cold air that should tilt negatively. This could produce snow for interior New England but for NJ, we’re positioned for warm Monday rain possibly ending Monday night as non-accumulating snow. In most cases like this, precipitation ends before temps drop below freezing at the surface. We’ll then go another gear colder for Tuesday -Wednesday before moderating milder again for Thanksgiving Thursday into Friday. Next weekend presents a synoptic signal for a weak surface low to move in behind the departing ULL/trough under some weak upper-level energy. Model guidance is spraying anything from a weaker system that misses NJ to the S to a low that cuts inland and brings rain to NJ. In the middle of that solution could be a thread the needle snow situation if enough cold air can settle in Saturday-Sunday and the low can track just S of NJ. For this reason, I am still monitoring the storm signal. Gut says it’s still a little too early for snow but who knows.
Friday (Nov 19) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and flat-bottom clouds. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW and will make it feel even colder. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts (below freezing for most areas away from the ocean).
Saturday (Nov 20) high temperatures should again, struggle to escape the 40s. Skies should start mixed but increase in cloud coverage. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts under cloudy skies.
Sunday (Nov 21) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas, maybe even 60 in some interior CNJ/SNJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with periods of light rain possible.
An early look at next week indicates more of the same. Another wet cold front Monday after a milder Sun-Mon AM. Tues-Wed looks like the coldest period of the week (colder than how Friday-Saturday will feel). Thanksgiving currently looks chilly and breezy in the 50s. Still monitoring end of Thanksgiving weekend storm signal. Looks warm for NJ for now but there is a lot of time between now and then for analysis.
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC