Volatile Conditions

Discussion: I’m seeing a much more wintry-like pattern beginning around Dec 5 for New Jersey. That doesn’t mean we’re getting a snowstorm on Dec 5. It simply means the atmosphere will become favorable for snow development at that point and the near future beyond that point…mainly in the form of sufficient cold and a blocking -NAO signal to slow down any lows that might form and track up the east coast. We’ll have to look at all the chess pieces when we get there. But first, let’s talk about this week and the weekend. The current pattern has low pressure systems tracking through the lakes and Canada, ultimately dragging cold fronts through NJ. We will see this on Wednesday and possibly again on Saturday. We actually just saw it yesterday. For NJ it typically means mild and breezy, even gusty, winds out of the S/SW ahead of the cold front. Once the front is through it means cold and breezy/gusty out of the NW behind the cold front. It’s a volatile pattern but that’s how it looks from now through the weekend. For this week all eyes will be on the Wednesday-Thursday cold front as a strong upper jet could mean gusty, even damaging winds, brought down to the surface. I’d like to take a look at the soundings closer to the event to see how any inversions might affect or inhibit the more damaging winds from occurring. For now, expect a windy Wednesday…first out of the S/SW then out of the NW depending on what side of the front you are on. As far as rain goes, most should hug the front.

Monday (Nov 28) high temperatures should pretty much stay where they began this morning, anything from 50-60. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with a few breaks of sun possible before sundown. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should drop into the 20s for most with immediate coasts hanging in the lower-30s.

Tuesday (Nov 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (Nov 30) high temperatures should reach back up into the mid-to-upper 50s, maybe even 60 in some spots. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the S/SW. I’m monitoring the wind situation (see above discussion). Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most.   

Thursday (Dec 1) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should still be breezy out of the W/NW but should subside by afternoon. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most with immediate coasts hanging in the lower-30s.

Friday (Dec 2) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s with mostly dry conditions. We might see some more rain move through Saturday. Let’s see how it looks in a few days.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC