Very Mild for this Time of Year

Discussion: Today (Thursday) we’re maxing out in the 60s (some breaking 70). The next few days (this weekend and through Monday) look amazing on paper but unseasonably mild for this time of year. In fact, we might see some warm records broken. Tonight, we’ll all dip to somewhere between the upper-40s and lower-50s. But then warm air advection will move in with authority tomorrow morning. Expect fog, possibly dense, to develop Friday morning from the warm moist air advecting into the colder overnight air mass. At the upper levels, we have a ridge first flexing over Maine this weekend before retrograding and re-flexing over the Great Lakes next week. So for the weekend we have SW upper flow and then NW flow next week. That will mean the difference between highs reaching into the 70s this weekend and only the 60s next week. At the lower levels, high pressure will be pinned due E of NJ and S of Nova Scotia for the weekend—delivering warm and moist S/SW return flow into NJ through Monday. So from now through Monday, the general theme will be slightly humid highs in the 70s (who knows maybe 80) with overnight lows still falling back into the 50s. We don’t have much sun angle to work with each day and climatologically, it’s November. Because of the cool nights leading to warm days, fog is pretty much on the table every morning. Starting Monday night we’ll be more under the influence of the lakes high approaching rather than the ocean high departing. That will allow clear viewing for the Tuesday morning (3-7am) total lunar eclipse. It will also allow for a cooler (but not yet colder) air mass to move in and keep highs from escaping the 60s. As of right now, it looks like a rainy, maybe stormy, front will push through NJ between Friday night and Saturday morning (Nov 11-12) which should knock temperature profiles back to where they should be for mid-November. I’m then seeing an even colder step down around the 15^th. But for now, the next 4 days look unseasonably warm and the overall next 8 days look mild.

Friday (Nov 4) high temperatures should push into the low-to-mid 70s for most areas. After any morning fog clears, skies should greatly improve. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (Nov 5) high temperatures should push into the mid-70s for most areas dare I say nearing 80 away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. There might be some more morning fog but otherwise skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light to breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should hover near-60 for most areas.

Sunday (Nov 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s again. 80 not off the table for isolated interior CNJ/SNJ locations. Skies should transition from mostly sunny to at least partly cloudy by evening/overnight. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas. Immediate coasts could hang at or just above 60.

This weekend in a sentence: Gorgeous weather conditions on paper however seasonably out of place and awkward for November.

An early look at next week indicates Monday possibly being the warmest day of this freak stretch. The good news is that conditions cool off and clear out for the early-Tuesday morning total lunar eclipse (happens between 3am and 7am). The rest of the week then looks nice but not as warm as this weekend. Highs in the low-to-mid 60s and lows in the 40s type stuff. I’m seeing temperatures take another step-down around Nov 12 (rainy/stormy cold front) where highs will only reach the mid-50s then another step down around Nov 15 when highs should struggle to escape the 40s. But other than the Nov 11-12 front, not seeing any other rain for now.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™