Unsettled Weekend Expected (May 5-7)

After a washout Friday, the rest of the weekend looks cooler and unsettled. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: Lower 500mb heights should dominate the E US pattern for the next 10-12 days. At first a longwave trough swings in before separating from the jet as a closed-off upper-level low. We won’t likely see higher 500mb heights move in until the ~May 18 period. This should traditionally produce cooler temperatures and generally unsettled conditions. There should still be plenty of sun between unsettled periods of clouds, rainy days and thunderstorms. In summary, run-of mill conditions for slightly cool spring weather. ~May 18 still appears to feature the start of much warmer weather. As far as this weekend goes, we’re dealing with the onset of the upper-level trough. I expect Saturday and Sunday to feature sun and clouds but occasional scattered showers cannot be ruled out. This should be par for the course through next week. Next Monday-Wednesday seems like the coldest May will ever get with highs only reaching into the 50s. We should still push into the 60s this Saturday and Sunday despite the upper-level setup. Sun angle is very high and will likely win out over the cooler environment aloft, especially during peak afternoon solar output. You’ll notice the chill much more during darker hours.

Friday (May 5) high temperatures should just reach into the 60s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with heavy rainfall possible at times. Skies should improve for most by late-afternoon but remnant isolated/scattered showers could stick around through evening and overnight hours. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the SE. Overnight lows should only fall into the 50s statewide.

Saturday (May 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s statewide. Skies should be mixed with mostly sun and clouds. Isolated-to-scattered pockets of rain cannot be ruled out given the overall unsettled environment. I expect NWNJ to be slightly more unsettled than SENJ in general. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s away from the ocean and for NNJ elevations. Coastal areas might hang in the lower-50s. The chance for isolated showers should persist overnight.

Sunday (May 7) high temperatures should reach the upper-50s/lower-60s statewide. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Isolated showers are possible but I would say there’s a lesser chance than Saturday. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most and possibly even the 30s for NNJ elevations (frost watch likely).

An early look at next week indicates Monday through Wednesday being unseasonably cooler. Highs in the 50s with statewide frost potential overnight. This is why you wait until Mother’s Day to plant. Thursday-forward looks warmer but still slightly-below avg overall. Keep in mind that rain and thunderstorms should be plentiful throughout this period given the upper-level lower heights in place. I still think ~May 18 is the magic day for the warmer weather turning point. Let’s revisit in a few days. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™