By no means a washout. Let’s break it down…
Discussion: A low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes this weekend before lifting up into SE Canada. It will drag a frontal boundary through New Jersey where a weak disturbance of low pressure will try to form, bringing additional rainfall. Friday looks okay despite humid/isolated pop-up conditions. The meat and potatoes of the rainfall is currently modeled to fall between early Saturday morning and about noon with remnant showers possible through Saturday afternoon hours. This rainfall could be on-and-off with a scattered-to-widespread nature. Therefore, some could completely miss it despite the strong general chance statewide. The window of rain has trended earlier on Saturday all week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it trend a few more hours earlier given the progressive setup. With that said we should be mostly finished with rain after Saturday afternoon with improving conditions for Saturday night and Sunday. The only rain I see possible for Sunday would be from very isolated pop-ups.
Tropics: Invest 99L should not develop into a tropical storm. It should however remain a weak tropical wave that curves and passes out-to-sea early next week. With that said, the only tropical impacts currently expected from Invest 99L are coastal rip currents and possibly some increased swell for the surfers. Please pay attention to lifeguard flags and recommendations. Otherwise no other tropical points of interest are currently on the horizon.
Friday (Aug 11) high temperatures should reach into the low-to-mid 80s away from the ocean. NNJ elevations and coastal regions should hang in the upper-70s. Skies should be partly sunny and humid for most of the day but cloud coverage is expected to increase heading into evening hours, ahead of the rainfall. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible especially during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most but possibly hang around 70 for the immediate SNJ coast.
Saturday (Aug 12) high temperatures should reach into the low-to-mid 80s away from the ocean. NNJ elevations and coastal regions should hang in the upper-70s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms possible during AM hours. There’s a good chance rain cuts off by noon but let’s allow a few remnant showers to linger through afternoon hours. Late-afternoon hours and forward should offer improvement. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.
Sunday (Aug 13) high temperatures should reach into the low-to-mid 80s away from the ocean. NNJ elevations and coastal regions could hang around 70. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. NNJ should have a slightly more comfortable feel than SNJ. Some humidity might linger statewide however. With that said, let’s allow a small chance for afternoon/early evening pop-up showers and thunderstorms. I do think most will stay dry though. Winds should be light out of the W/NW for NNJ and light out of the SW for SNJ. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most and possibly the 50s for NNJ elevations. Should be a comfortable night!
An early look at next week indicates more humid weather with isolated instances of rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures appear slightly warmer as well so there should be a very summery feel. I’m less confident in a multi-day 90+ heat wave but more confident in at least mid-to-upper 80s. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™