Unsettled Start. Great Finish.

Discussion: The 250mb jet wants to stay N of NJ for the near-future with the exception of a small dip mid-next week. We’ll talk about that later. That should keep geopotential heights neutral or higher than average (weak ridging) with again, the exception of next week’s dip. Under this weekend’s weakening ridge, we’re unsettled today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) with significant improvement for Sunday. A weak trough won’t make it far enough to bring negative heights into NJ but should push the heights down to near-neutral. A warm front is responsible for today’s rain. Once that clears to the N of NJ, we’ll have a very small period in the nose of the warm sector (break in the rain) before the cold front pushes more rain through tomorrow (Saturday). The warm and cold fronts will be attached to a surface low tracking through the Great Lakes into SE Canada. Saturday looks the rainiest and best chance for embedded thunderstorms. Once the cold front is through overnight (Saturday night into Sunday morning), then Sunday looks great with ample sunshine and temps reaching 60+. Most forecast apps are likely too low. Since the area will be desaturating/drying, I bet some CNJ/SNJ areas take a run at, or at least flirt with, 70 Sunday. Next week looks like more of the same outside of early-to-mid week unsettledness related to the previously mentioned jet dip. Models disagree on intensity (just showers/breeze vs. heavier rain/higher winds). Will have a much better idea as the data evolves over the weekend.

Friday (March 24) high temperatures are topping out around 50 today. Skies should remain overcast/cloudy with spotty showers (mostly across SNJ) through the overnight. Winds are light out of the NW now (Friday afternoon) but will switch around to the E overnight. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (March 25) high temperatures should range from 40s to 50s from elevations to coasts. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Possibly some embedded boomers. Winds should continue switching around from E to SE, lighter away from the ocean and breezier along the ECNJ/SENJ coast. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s as spotty rain chances fully taper off by daybreak Sunday.  

Sunday (March 26) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a few friendly clouds around. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates high temperatures ranging from 50-60, low temperatures 30-40, elevations to coasts. Early-to-mid week (Tues-Wed) still looks unsettled. Still uncertain whether just spotty showers and breeze vs. heavier rain and higher winds. Either way, it won’t be snow. I would expect a cooler period immediately afterward (Wed-Thurs) but then we should return to the overall spring warming pattern by next weekend. Let’s check back in a few days on next week’s rain. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC