Unsettled Start Cold Finish (Feb 10-14)

Discussion: Real quick, some precipitation is moving through tonight. Extreme NNJ could see some wintry precipitation type from this. It should move out by tomorrow morning. E US ridging and a Bermuda high should keep temperatures above average through Wednesday. A progressive positive-tilted trough should then form from a Pacific shortwave and a polar shortwave. The coupling of this energy is currently modeled to start NNJ/SNJ with Snow/Rain late-Wednesday night into Thursday morning before all of NJ ends as rain late Thursday. Therefore we should have a snow/rain line moving N through NJ Thursday morning. Accumulations would likely be light before the changeover but I could see travel delays/problems N of I-78. Once precip ends Thursday look for a significant drop in temperatures into Thursday night. What doesn’t evaporate could freeze with a lack of breezier winds. Keep that in mind for road safety. If it looks wet and it’s below 32F treat it like ice. Friday into the weekend then looks dangerously cold. I’m not sure NJ makes it above freezing on Friday (Valentine’s Day). Models are consistent in advertising an active pattern through the rest of February. They are very inconsistent however on timing. Most systems are not timing with the transient cold shots but rather the warm front’s between. I’ll report on any wintry action that becomes more consistently modeled. Not much for now other than the Wednesday night into Thursday morning period for NNJ.    

Monday (Feb 10) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to near-50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ as rainfall continues through Tuesday morning. Only the highest elevations of Sussex County would have the chance to see wintry precipitation.

Tuesday (Feb 11) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to near-50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with more periods of rain likely. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to upper-30s. Areas that dip below freezing could deal with slippery surfaces for any remaining water on the ground.

Wednesday (Feb 12) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most. Skies should be better for NWNJ (partly cloudy) than SENJ (mostly cloudy with rain showers possible). Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 as more precipitation moves in, possibly wintry for parts of NNJ.

Thursday (Feb 13) high temperatures should occur during AM hours. That’s mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ. Snow is possible for NNJ during AM hours but should change to rain like the rest of NJ. Once everything wraps up by afternoon hours skies should improve and temperatures should crash rather hard. Winds should become light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-teens to mid-20s.

Friday (Feb 14) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 20s statewide. Valentines Day is looking very cold (queue the jokes). Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-zero to near-20 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates colder conditions lasting through Sunday morning. Sunday then looks a bit more mild for afternoon high temperatures. No snow storms are modeled on the near-horizon outside of the Wed PM-Thurs AM snow-to-rain event for NNJ. I’ll talk more about that if it becomes more wintry. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™