Unsettled Pattern Continues

Discussion: Yesterday was a rough one along and NW of I-95. Areas SE of such saw little-to-nothing. This was mainly due to the best atmospheric dynamics occurring away from the ocean and for points N. SNJ/SENJ also saw a lot of cloud cover which inhibited diurnal destabilization. The upper levels should remain unsettled for the foreseeable future. It looks like anything but a traditional Bermuda high-pumped E US ridge. Instead, most of the blocking and ridging is occurring in SC Canada with upper lows and troughs forming beneath it for the C and E US. That doesn’t mean that summer won’t summer though. We should still expect higher levels of humidity but only 80s not 90s. Maybe a few interior spots hit 90 this Friday or early next week, but I am still not seeing any “all 90s for all of NJ” heat waves in the forecast. If 80-85 and humid isn’t warm enough for you, you’ll be disappointed. Today (Tuesday) we had an early rain but more rain and thunderstorms are possible. From tomorrow through the rest of this week, expect just passing/isolated stuff but with more clouds than sun and an elevated humid feel. A weak and small area of high pressure should keep Wed and Thurs drier than today and yesterday but not entirely rain free. Friday looks like the first mostly sunny day but with a more traditional hot and humid feel. The tropics have become active in the lower latitudes for places like the E Caribbean but this should have little-to-no effect on NJ’s weather pattern.

Tuesday (June 27) high temperatures should level off in the 75-80 range. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a humid feel and wet start. Conditions should improve for afternoon but more showers and thunderstorms are possible for evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 65-70 range.

Wednesday (June 28) high temperatures should again level off in the 75-80 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a humid feel. More showers and thunderstorms are possible however just isolated not widespread. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (June 29) high temperatures should reach into the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Can’t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the lower 60s for most NJ locations.

Friday (June 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should stay above 60 statewide.

An early look at the weekend indicates more unsettled conditions. Not washouts but lots of humidity and clouds, passing showers and thunderstorms, etc. Not everyone gets hit but those who do get dumped on. Let’s take another look just before the weekend. Have a great week otherwise and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC