Discussion: The Bermuda high remains locked which is driving our current stubborn pattern of humid and unsettled conditions. We saw some relief yesterday but this week we’re returning right back as the warm front is brought back northward over NJ. I do see some Bermuda high displacement towards the end of this weekend as the upper-level W Atlantic ridge is modeled to break down. While this might remove some of the humid southerly return flow from the Bermuda high, it could bring more unsettled weather in from the W as upper-level heights fall over the E US. This could mean a few weaker but tricky synoptic rain systems next week before the wet pattern ultimately (hopefully) breaks by the end of next week. For this week, conditions should be similar every day. Not all-day washouts but periods of unsettled conditions, especially afternoon into evening hours. Each day will need diurnal surface heating to build up the clouds. Don’t be surprised to see SENJ verify drier than NWNJ again (like last week). The flow will be first met by SENJ and needs to heat up over land before precipitating over NJ areas downstream of the flow (further W and NW than SENJ). There are no guarantees for rain/storms this week since most action will be scattered-to-widespread. Everyone however is on the hook for unsettled conditions which could mean anything from humid breaks of sun to out-of-nowhere tropical-feeling showers and thunderstorms. Any sea breeze fronts that form could spark isolated activity along the SENJ coast just like this past Saturday.
Monday (July 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. Coastal regions could hang in the 70s from onshore flow. Skies should be partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms possible, especially SE of I-95. We’re pre-warm front on Monday so humidity will still feel less than it has been. NWNJ has a better chance to stay dry. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.
Tuesday (July 31) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most. Skies should be partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms possible. Humidity should be re-elevated with the warm front passage expected to occur by this point. Winds should be light out of the E/SE for most, maybe a little more out of the S/SE for SENJ coastal regions. Overnight lows should hang near-70 for most.
Wednesday (August 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ has the best chance to run at 90. Skies should be partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms possible. Humidity should feel elevated. Winds should be light out of the S/SE, maybe a bit breezier for SNJ. Overnight lows should only fall into the low-to-mid 70s statewide.
Thursday (August 2) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ would again have the best shot at flirting with 90. Skies should be partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms possible. Humidity should remain elevated. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 70s again. Perhaps NNJ elevations dip into the upper-60s.
Friday (August 3) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most. Skies should be partly-cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. Humidity should remain stubborn. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70s for most.
An early look at the weekend indicates more of the same for Saturday. Sunday looks a little drier from this range but with the overall persisting pattern, we cannot take more showers and thunderstorms off the table. Let’s take another look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™