Unsettled Conditions Usher in Fall Feel

Discussion: This weekend, a decaying ridge over the E US will give way to the bottom/backside of a trough. This will change the upper flow from a warm and humid S/SW source to a dry and comfortable/chilly at night N/NW source. This gradual transition will come at the expense of current and Sat-Sun unsettled conditions (clouds, showers, and storms). While most of the weekend seems unsettled (while we’re in the warm sector), it should come to a head with showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early Monday AM. I wish I had a better outdoor forecast for you this weekend but I don’t. I suppose the silver lining would be a drier and more comfortable Monday (Labor Day). But from now through early Monday AM, it’s unsettled and suboptimal for traditional outdoor Labor Day weekend stuff. Not any day is a washout but certainly clouds, showers, and thunderstorms around. Monday then starts a stretch heading into next week of cooler temps and more comfortable levels of humidity. Tuesday morning should be the coldest point as much of NJ dips below 50 with the rest of the state dipping down into low-to-mid 50s. A slow and gradual moderation of temps should then occur into next weekend. A reminder that the ocean is still in the 70s so that will inhibit immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas from experiencing the full effect of “early fall blast” conditions starting Monday PM/Tuesday AM, especially during overnights. But for those away from the ocean, get ready to give air conditioning a rest, open up windows if you can, and grab those hoodies for evening outdoor stuff.

Friday (Aug 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should remain mixed with more clouds than sun and a few passing showers here and there. A humid feel despite lower temps. Winds should remain light out of the E, perhaps a little breezier along immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows fall to the 65-70 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (Aug 31) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun again for daytime hours. Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for later in the evening/overnight. Humidity should remain elevated. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 statewide.

Sunday (Sept 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most NJ locations. NNJ elevations might get trapped in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should remain mixed with showers and thunderstorms possible. As of now showers and storms are favoring AM hours over PM hours but entire day on the hook for them. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with showers and thunderstorms lingering but weakening.

Monday (Sept 2 – Labor Day) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Humidity should feel noticeably less than prior days. Best outside day of the extended holiday weekend IMO. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the rest of next week (Sept 3-6) indicates very nice and comfortable conditions. Should feel more “early-fall” than summery. Highs in the 70s, lows in the 45-58 range (NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts), and low humidity. Tropics remain eerily quiet for US east coast interests but we are now entering peak season so I would imagine a flare-up in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin is not too far away.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC