Discussion: A low pressure system will track through the Great Lakes into SE Canada between tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday morning. From this system NJ will first see a warm front move through this evening (Thursday), from SW to NE, followed by a Friday morning warm sector and ultimately a Friday afternoon cold front, from NW to SE. Light rain is possible this evening (Thursday) along the warm front and tomorrow (Friday) afternoon along the cold front. In either case the rain is nothing to write home about. Friday night into Saturday then looks fairly cold with temperatures dipping below freezing for much of the state. A weak wave (hardly a defined low) should then track through the Mid-Atlantic US (close to over NJ) between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. This should bring a cold rain to most of New Jersey within that time-frame. There’s a small chance the Poconos and NWNJ elevations see an initial wintry mix Saturday night due to the departing cold air mass. Cold air damming against the Appalachian Mountains could hold the surface colder as the precipitation arrives. I doubt there are any wintry concerns S of I-80 and/or E of I-287. It’s really only the elevations of NWNJ that I am concerned about for such. Once the low is over the east coast even NWNJ elevations should change over to rain as precipitation wraps up early Sunday. After that we look pretty dry and tranquil for Thanksgiving week. There’s a cold front I’m watching in the ~Wednesday period but as of now it looks like a mostly dry frontal passage.
Friday (Nov 22) high temperatures should range from lower-50s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ. Interior CNJ/SNJ has the best chance to reach/break 60 but not guaranteed. Skies should be mixed surrounding the cold frontal passage. Rain is possible along the cold front between late-morning and afternoon. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty, out of the W but not damaging. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to near-freezing NNJ to SNJ. NWNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens could dip a little lower.
Saturday (Nov 23) high temperatures should fail to escape the 40s statewide. Skies should gradually increase in cloud coverage through late-morning and early-afternoon. Rain is possible from afternoon hours through early Sunday morning. Should start by late-afternoon/early-evening for SWNJ and by late-evening for NENJ. Wintry precipitation is possible for NWNJ elevations as surface temperatures might flirt with near-freezing values by the time the rain starts for said area. Little-to-no wintry accumulation is expected. All areas should go over to cold rain to finish. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-freezing to near-40.
Sunday (Nov 24) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to lower-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should transition from mostly cloudy to partly cloudy by sunset. Morning rain should end by sunrise. Winds should be light, possibly breezy at times, out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates a milder start (highs in the 50s) and a colder finish (highs in the 40s). Wednesday looks like the day of transition with a passing cold front. Right now the front looks on the dry side but can’t rule out frontal precipitation completely. Otherwise I’m not currently seeing any other precipitation chances through next week.
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™