Unsettled Conditions (Feb 24-28)

Discussion: The upper-level (250mb) jet looks very aggressive over the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US this Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning. I see a strong jet streak with ample divergence and difluence aloft. This was the signal I mentioned last week. Like everything else this winter it looks too warm for snow. But the wind and precipitation should still produce higher-impact conditions between about 11PM (Wed night) and 6am (Thurs morning). You might even see some convective thunderstorm action embedded within the dynamics. At 500mb we have two shortwaves phasing into a negative trough through Wednesday night. Then we have more upper-level energy dropping down behind the phase and swinging a neutral-to-positive trough through our region for this weekend…as the 250mb jet dips S of NJ. Therefore we have a mild and dry start to the week (Monday), a mild and wet Tuesday-Wednesday, a windy possibly stormy Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and then a colder Thursday night through the weekend. No snow storms are expected through the rest of February. We’re going to need a grand slam in the 9^th inning (March) to avoid most of NJ falling well-below seasonal snow averages for Winter of 2019-2020. It is what it is.

Monday (Feb 24) high temperatures should range from upper-50s to lower-60s for many areas away from the ocean. Coastal SNJ areas are subject to temps not as mild (near-50/low-50s). Skies should transition from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ as periods of rain move in.  

Tuesday (Feb 25) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall to the upper-30s/lower-40s for most areas.

Wednesday (Feb 26) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to near-50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of scattered rain around. Winds should be light out of the E earlier in the day. Overnight lows should fall to near-40 for most areas, perhaps mid-to-upper 30s for interior/elevations. Winds are expected to pick up overnight (close to or just after midnight) along with more rain and possibly some gusty winds. Should be out of here by daybreak Thursday. Will monitor and report more if necessary.

Thursday (Feb 27) high temperatures should range from near-40 to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny after the windy/stormy conditions blow through late-Wed night/Thurs AM. Winds should then be breezy, gusty at times, out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30.

Friday (Feb 28) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30.

An early look at the weekend indicates clear and cold conditions. Highs in the 30s lows in the teens/20s type stuff. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™