Discussion: After a colder Thursday night, an area of high pressure should track from the Ohio Valley area through OBX towards Bermuda. This should keep conditions mild and dry through about Saturday morning. We’re then looking at classic Norwegian Cyclone Model influence from a decent low (~985mb) tracking just to our NW. We should see clouds and showers earlier on Saturday along the warm front. The rest of Saturday through Sunday morning should feature mild but breezy conditions as we’ll be in the warm sector (SW flow). By sunrise Sunday morning the cold front should be through. Given the intensity of the low, very gusty conditions are expected to last into Monday. This period of NW flow could trigger lake-effect snow showers. NWNJ would be favored to see such over SENJ. Will have to see how the best streamers set up on radar.
Friday (Nov 17) high temperatures should fail to escape the 40s for most aside from SENJ just reaching 50. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 20s to 30s from NW to SE across New Jersey.
Saturday (Nov 18) high temperatures should range from about 50 for NWNJ to possibly 60 along the SENJ coast. Skies should be partly cloudy with rain possible. AM hours look wetter than PM hours. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide as more rain is expected along the passing cold front.
Sunday (Nov 19) high temperatures could reach into the 50s very early in the morning just ahead of the cold front. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be very gusty, possibly disruptive at times, out of the NW once the cold front is through (during AM hours). Temperatures should then gradually fall throughout the day into the 20s (for most) through overnight hours. SE of the turnpike could hang near-30.
An early look at next week indicates highs in the 40s/lower-50s with mostly dry conditions through Friday. No synoptic storm systems, especially wintry storm systems, are on the near-horizon. Let’s take another look on Sunday evening. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™