Discussion: A low pressure system will track through the Great Lakes into SE Canada between now (Thursday PM) and Saturday. This low will drag a slow moving and fizzling cold front through the region between Friday PM and Saturday. This fizzling boundary is very hard to read re: rain/storm activity. The best thing to do is go with a general isolated-to-scattered threat of rain showers and thunderstorms. A hit-or-miss scenario with many missing. Once the boundary comes to rest, some energy will try to revolve around the return flow of a Bermuda-stationed high. This could re-ignite the fizzling boundary with just enough lift to produce more isolated-to-scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for Sunday. I can’t emphasize enough that the weekend is not a washout, just a period of unsettled conditions where some luck out and others rain/storm-impacted. I will say that Friday and Saturday look the least unsettled (better chance to stay dry) of all weekend days. Sunday depends on how close the coastal disturbance rounds the return flow…how close it gets to the coast. If close enough then all of NJ could see rain. If further out to sea then only the isolated-to-scattered scenario should play out. The best way to play it statewide: Prepare for showers and thunderstorms but hope your area stays dry. I can’t make promises at the zip code level. Too much uncertainty.
This evening (May 3) could feature isolated-to-scattered rain showers and thunderstorms through overnight hours as low temperatures fall into the mid-to-upper 60s. NNJ (generally along and N of I-78) is favored for rain and thunderstorms. Only extremely isolated instances of severe criteria are possible. The most realistic expectation are for showers and regular thunderstorms.
Friday (May 4) high temperatures should reach into the 80s again for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ has the best shot at breaking 90 again. Immediate coastal regions could be held in the upper-70s. Skies should be partly sunny with a humid feel. Isolated-to-scattered rain and thunderstorms are possible, especially during afternoon/evening hours…hit or miss with most missing. Winds should be breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.
Saturday (May 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most. Immediate coastal regions could be held in the 60s. Skies should be partly sunny again. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms (not a washout) are possible favoring areas SE of I-95 and earlier in the day. NWNJ and parts of NNJ/CNJ has the best chance to stay dry. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.
Sunday (May 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s for most. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy. More rain is possible depending on how close the coastal disturbance passes. If closer then more rain. If further out then the chance to stay drier increases. It’s a wait and see scenario that you should prepare for but hope it misses/fizzles. I’ll provide updates throughout the weekend on anything approaching. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates seasonably average temperatures (for a change) and generally dry conditions. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™