Unsettled Conditions Expected (May 26-29)

Memorial Day Weekend should feature a mixed bag of unsettled conditions. Nothing too disruptive though. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: The 250mb jet streak currently running from S to N over NJ is impressive and should aid in thunderstorm production later tonight. With lower 500mb heights tonight, hail is also possibility (look for pink radar signature within heaviest downpours). After that the jet stream levels become flat/zonal which sets up a highway of multiple disturbances through this weekend and into next week. 500mb heights look below average tonight through Saturday as the upper-level trough moves out and dissolves. Sunday through at least Wednesday of next week indicate average 500mb heights. So in general, this should represent a gradual warm-up starting with 70s this weekend and possibly reaching into 80s next week. The unsettled conditions re: precipitation should also continue however. I’m having a difficult time narrowing down precipitation periods to the hour so I’m going “unsettled” throughout the entire weekend. At this time, it appears we might luck out with most rainfall occurring during evening/early morning hours rather than peak daytime activity hours. With that said, most weather could work out for most outdoor plans. Given how uncertain and unsettled everything is however, no promises. Best just to know that it could rain at any time this weekend (from isolated pop-up showers) and to plan accordingly. Here’s my best take on how the weekend should play out…

Friday (May 26) high temperatures should reach into the mid-70s statewide. Skies should be partly sunny for most with just a small chance of isolated rain showers, especially for NNJ. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

Saturday (May 27) high temperatures should reach into the mid-to-upper 70s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ might flirt with breaking 80. Coastal regions might hover around 70. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with again, a small chance of an isolated shower or two. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most and possibly only 60 along the immediate coast.

Sunday (May 28) high temperatures should reach the upper-60s/lower-70s statewide. Skies should be overcast/mostly cloudy for most of the day. Rain and possibly thunderstorms could move in for evening hours into overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

Monday (May 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s statewide. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a small possibility of rain. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s for most and possibly only the lower-60s for immediate coastal areas.

An early look at next week indicates more highs in the mid-to-upper 70s, more lows in the 50s and isolated chances of showers. No significant rain systems are currently expected…more like an extension of the weekend theme (nice for most, nuisance for some). Everyone have a great holiday weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™