Unsettled Conditions Expected (May 11-13)

Discussion: That’s my mom and I in the photo in case you didn’t know. A happy mother’s day weekend to her and to all the moms out there!

Once again a long-range weekend forecast has deteriorated in the short-to-mid-term forecasting period after a mostly beautiful week. High pressure will dive in from Canada over the Great Lakes and ultimately set up near Bermuda. This will time perfectly to string out an area of zonal convergence across the N Mid-Atlantic US this weekend. That means a decent chance for clouds, rain and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms. Friday looks fairly decent. Saturday looks split with NNJ cloudy and wet vs SNJ drier. Sunday looks like at least some form of nuisance light rain scattered across NJ. I could see some areas lucking out. Next week looks to feature multiple bouts of clouds, rain and thunderstorms. The next 7 days in general look very unsettled and might spark the active thunderstorm season for our region.

Friday (May 11) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s statewide. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny and pleasant. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

Saturday (May 12) high temperatures should only reach the mid-to-upper 60s for NNJ. CNJ and SNJ should reach into the 70s and possibly break 80. NNJ also has the best chance for rain with SNJ the best chance to stay dry with sun. CNJ could go either way. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

Sunday (May 13) high temperatures should reach the upper-50s/lower-60s statewide. Scattered showers are likely for most but not all. I’d prepare for nuisance rain statewide to play it safe. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

An early look at next week indicates warmer temperatures but in a very unsettled atmosphere. Conditions could vary between humid periods of sunshine and clouds/rain/thunderstorms all the way into next weekend. Let’s take another look on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and again, happy mother’s day to all the moms out there! Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™