Discussion: The Bermuda high remains stubbornly parked which should keep the return flow up the east coast in place. This should produce a wet Friday (today) and Saturday (tomorrow). Not all day washouts but certainly periods of outdoor cancelling rainfall/storms. In general, rainfall should start today in SNJ and spread through CNJ into NNJ by overnight tonight. Saturday should slowly transition from widespread to scattered to isolated showers while remaining mostly cloudy. On Sunday an approaching area of high pressure should squash the convergence zone boundary to the S of NJ. We could see some very isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday but the widespread rain action should be gone. This should set up a drier next week than this week with maybe a weak mid-week disturbance (Tuesday PM thunderstorms). Wednesday through at least Saturday currently looks mostly dry without any synoptic rainfall. Can’t rule out isolated pop-up activity however. Friday looks like the warmer day so maybe some afternoon convection. Otherwise some of next Sunday into Monday-Tuesday looks unsettled and possibly wet. A tropical cyclone might affect SW Florida during Memorial Day Weekend. It looks very weak with only a modeled low pressure of ~999mb. The remnants from such could slide up the east coast and interact with an approaching cold front. That would spell a very wet, and possibly windy at times, next Monday-Tuesday (possibly starting Sunday). Best I can do from this range.
Friday (May 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rainfall and embedded thunderstorms possible. Rainfall in general should start in SNJ and transition through CNJ into NNJ by overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the E away from the ocean (breezy out of E along immediate coast). Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ as rainfall persists.
Saturday (May 19) high temperatures should range from 60 to 70 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with periods of rainfall likely, especially during AM hours. Rainfall should thin across NJ heading into PM hours but I would still expect mostly cloudy skies Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.
Sunday (May 20) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s for most. Skies should be partly sunny with very isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms possible (hit or miss stuff). Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 50 to 60 NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates a drier scenario overall with seasonably average temperatures. I’d still expect some possible mid-week rain but nothing like how this past week has been. Right now it looks like PM thunderstorms could roll through on Tuesday. A super early look at Memorial Day Weekend indicates mostly dry and warm conditions Thursday through Saturday (possibly Wednesday through Saturday). Not too hot but warm and possibly a little sticky. Sunday through Tuesday could be in jeopardy though. It all depends on how the possible tropical development goes down in SW Florida. The remnants from such could slide up the coast and interact with a cold front for a very wet Sunday-Tuesday (May 28-29). With any luck that could hold off as late as possible Sunday and only present a rainy Monday. We have time on this and will likely change from this far out. But that’s what I’m seeing right now. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™