Discussion: Not much going on at the upper-levels aside from zonal W flow under the Canadian jet. 500mb height anomalies appear close to average through the weekend. The surface has been and continues to be a mess. The Bermuda high has been stubbornly parked—delivering a convergence zone over the east coast between the southerly return flow and approaching systems from the W/NW. This is the very definition of a pattern and it looks to continue. It basically renders every day with summery sunshine and humidity nested between showers, downpours and thunderstorms. I’ve been tracking a period of relief for some time now. It still looks to occur mid-next week. I just don’t know yet if that will be a transient period of relief (a few days) or something more prolonged. Given the pattern, my gut says we go back to unsettled and humid by the weekend. I hope I’m wrong.
Friday (Aug 17) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most. Areas away from the ocean have the best chance to reach the low-90s. Skies should be partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms possible. Humidity should be noticeably elevated. NWNJ is favored for storm action over SENJ (typical fizzle before reaching coast). All should be prepared for severe criteria however just in case. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below the low-to-mid 70s statewide.
Saturday (Aug 18) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. Skies should be mixed with some humidity lingering, especially in SENJ. There will be plenty of outdoor weather however the chance for isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms exists. Very far from a washout but periods of disruption are not off the table. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.
Sunday (Aug 19) high temperatures should reach into the upper-70s for most. SNJ/coastal regions might reach 80. Skies should be partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. Again, not a washout but you cannot take periods of disruptive weather off the table. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates more of the same to start the week. I’m still anticipating a reduction in humidity after a ~Wednesday night cold front passage. Unfortunately the reduced humidity might be short lived. With the way this persistent pattern has been, I wouldn’t be surprised to return to unsettled and humid by next weekend. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™