Unsettled but Summery

Discussion: It looks like the upper jet will stay N of NJ until later next week. The tip of a weak trough to our N will allow a drier Friday night into Saturday morning. As a surface low moves out of New England, an weak high pressure will track in its wake. Once that high is in New England, return flow will pump humidity back into NJ, first off the ocean and then out of the S once the high advances further eastward. Some popcorn storms are forming along the weak front now (Friday afternoon) but lower dews and cooler temps should eventually prevail once the sun is down Friday. We’ll then have our small break of brief N flow before getting back to business by Saturday afternoon (warmth and humidity) and lasting through about Wednesday. We’ll soon experience some “fall is coming” conditions but expect them to be transient and only in the front side of a high to our W. We could see this as early as next Thursday. Labor Day Weekend is still strongly modeled for high pressure domination. I hope it holds true. That would produce a cooler and drier Thursday night and Friday (high to our W), an immaculate Saturday and Sunday (high overhead), then some humidity returning Monday (high slipping to our E) but still great conditions. Models are also strongly agreeing on something tropical entering the Gulf of Mexico or Bahamas/N Caribbean region. We have some time on that but it likes the signal. We would first need to figure out it’s path down that way before assessing any possible primary or secondary NJ impacts that might ensue after.

Friday (Aug 26) high temperatures are maxing in the 80-90 range for most areas. Some spots closer to the 95 corridor are into the low-90s. We might climb another degree or two but isolated tstorms are rolling through and cooling localized areas. Storms should fizzle with sundown and we should have a short slight relief from the humidity overnight with temps ranging from 60-70 elevations to coasts. Winds should remain light and transition from SW to NW overnight.

Saturday (Aug 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with thunderstorms possible. A small break from the humidity could still be in place during AM hours but humidity will likely spike by NLT afternoon. ECNJ/SENJ would be first to see humidity return. NWNJ would be the last. Winds should transition from NW to S or SE by evening. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from elevations to coasts…a more humid feeling night than how Friday night felt despite similar temps.

Sunday (Aug 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Can’t rule out an afternoon/evening pop-up shower or thunderstorm. Winds should be light out of the E/SE maybe a little breezier along ocean-facing beaches of ECNJ/SENJ. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most areas.

This weekend in a sentence: A small break in humidity overnight tonight (Friday) then back to warm, humid, an unsettled Saturday afternoon through the rest of the weekend.

An early look at next week indicates the status quo through at least Wednesday (80-90 and muggy with afternoon/evening isolated tstorm chances daily). A stronger and potentially stormy cold front is still on the table for the Wednesday night-Thursday period. Looking more like Thursday now but that would in-theory mean great conditions for Labor Day weekend. Let’s take a better look Monday morning. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™