Unsettled but Better

Discussion: A positive-tilted and progressive trough will push through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US Friday-Saturday. We experienced the warm sector and frontal rain from a surface low riding the front of this trough yesterday into this morning. Tonight through Saturday morning, we’ll experience the trailing upper-level low within the trough and all the fun precip/lifting that provides which is mainly targeting NNJ/CNJ over SNJ. But everyone is on the hook for additional isolated showers tonight (Friday) through Saturday morning/afternoon. Saturday and Saturday night should be the coldest point of the weekend behind the second batch of rain (trailing disturbance) and in the colder Canadian air flow (back of trough). Sunday then warms up as a warmer upper-level flow takes over and starts another milder stretch through at least Thursday. No major rainstorms but certainly average spring shower activity is on the table. But overall, this weekend and next week will be less rainy and milder than it’s been. Still unsettled but better.

Friday (April 12) high temperatures are just over 60 for most NJ locations, as of 230pm on Friday. We might rise a few more degrees here and there through the rest of Friday afternoon. Earlier rain has cleared out but could return by this evening. NNJ is favored over SNJ for it but all are on the hook for pesky isolated showers. Winds are transitioning from S/SW to more of a W direction and should remain breezy, possibly gusty at times, through most of Saturday. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as W winds persist.

Saturday (April 13) high temperatures should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun, clouds, and passing isolated-to-scattered showers (through late-morning/early afternoon). Winds should remain breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the W. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to upper-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (April 14) high temperatures should reach well into the 60s for most NJ locations with likely 70+ away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should start sunny but increase in cloud coverage through afternoon/evening hours. Can’t rule out a rogue shower or two during the day, mainly for NNJ. Otherwise more rain returns for overnight into Monday. Winds should subside to just light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.  

An early look at next week, after Monday AM rain moves out, indicates milder temperatures sustaining in the upper-60s and 70s with 80 not off the table a few days (Tues-Thurs) for the warmer WCNJ/SWNJ locations. Routine spring shower activity could feel like salt to an open wound but I’m not seeing any larger-scale synoptic soaker storms. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC