Discussion: A shallow split flow pattern is happening across the continental US through this week and weekend, seen from 250mb analysis. The separate streams are only about 1000 miles apart from California through the Central US before interacting closer for the E US. The closer E US proximity of these jets are responsible for brining low after low together for NJ rain. At 500mb, we’re alternating between higher and lower geopotential heights despite the zonal pattern. At the lower-levels we have ample lifting potential within an unsettled environment to warrant shower and thunderstorm capability any day this week. No day is a washout. Rather, every day should feature milder temps, periods of sun, and isolated showers and thunderstorms at any time…common transitional spring showers. It stings for outdoor plan interests, especially coming off such a wet winter finish/spring begin. So to summarize, this week looks mild and unsettled with warmer temps occurring during the week and slightly less mild temps occurring this coming weekend.
Monday (May 6) high temperatures are currently holding in the 50s/60s for NNJ but breaking into lower-70s for much of SNJ. Expect this general trend to continue a few more degrees upward through mid/late afternoon. Skies are mixed with more clouds than sun but should improve overall into evening hours despite possible isolated showers and thunderstorms. Winds are light in any direction. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Tuesday (May 7) high temperatures should reach 80 or so away from the ocean. Coastal areas closer to 70. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with only isolated showers possible. Many should stay dry. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to near-60 for most NJ locations.
Wednesday (May 8) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s inland and well into the 70s even along the coast. Humidity should be back along with the chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Thursday (May 9) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun and a few more showers and thunderstorms around. Winds should be light out of the E/SE, a little breezier along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-55 range for most NJ locations with more showers and thunderstorms possible overnight.
Friday (May 10) high temperatures should cap-out in the 60s. A cooler day. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out isolated showers around. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
An early look at the weekend indicates low-70s away from the ocean and 60s along the ocean with a continued unsettled look of spring showers possible any day. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™